Fast and Furious 6 Box Office Prediction

Vin Diesel, Dwayne Johnson, Paul Walker, and company take on the Wolf Pack in an epic showdown at the Memorial Day box office this weekend. It’s beginning to look like Fast will outpace The Hangover franchise.

I wrote extensively yesterday about the Wolf Pack’s chances at the multiplex this weekend and you can peruse that post right here:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/05/19/the-hangover-part-iii-box-office-prediction/

As mentioned in the blog post, The Hangover seems like a franchise that’s losing steam. We are seeing the opposite with the Furious franchise. Let’s take a trip down franchise memory lane, shall we?

The Fast and the Furious (2001)

Opening Weekend: $40.8M. Total Domestic Gross: $144.5M

2 Fast 2 Furious (2003)

Opening Weekend: $50.4M. Total Domestic Gross: $127.1M

The Fast and the Furious: Tokyo Drift (2006)

Opening Weekend: $23.9M. Total Domestic Gross: $62.5M

Fast and Furious (2009)

Opening Weekend: $70.9M. Total Domestic Gross: $155M

Fast Five (2011)

Opening Weekend: $86.1M. Total Domestic Gross: $209.8M

You will notice that the last two Fast pics were enormous blockbusters. Fast Five not only was by far the franchise’s biggest grosser – it also earned critical respect unlike any other entry. The 2001 original had previously been the highest on Rotten Tomatoes at a decent 52%. Fast Five got 78%! Where does Fast&Furious 6 currently sit? 78%.

This all leads me to the conclusion that the sixth installment is likely to capitalize on the good will brought forth by its predecessor. Additionally, Fast 6 has the benefit of a four-day opening over a holiday weekend. If it performs similar to #5’s numbers with the extra day factored in, we could be looking at a gross of over $100 million for opening weekend.

What could stand in its way? One word: competition. The Hangover Part III and the second weekend of Star Trek Into Darkness are most certainly gunning for the same audience. This fact alone could mean that Fast 6 opens lower than expected.

However, I don’t believe it will. This franchise is red-hot at the right time and looks poised for an massive debut. I’m convinced it will be #1, landing the Wolf Pack a second place finish. Who would’ve thought this unexpected 2001 hit would turn into the franchise it is today? You gotta give Universal a lot of credit and I believe this weekend will keep the momentum going. By the way, #7 will be out next summer.

Fast&Furious 6 opening weekend prediction: $106.8 million

Tomorrow on the blog, look for my prediction for Epic, the animated feature that will attempt to get the kiddos to the theater this weekend. On Wednesday, my prediction for the Top Five including the second weekend of Star Trek Into Darkness.