The Hangover Part III Box Office Prediction

Memorial Day weekend may answer the following question at the box office: Are moviegoers beginning to tire of the Wolf Pack?

Bradley Cooper, Zach Galifianakis, and Ed Helms return in The Hangover Part III, which opens on Thursday. Two years ago over the same weekend, the second Hangover installment earned an astonishing $135 million over the Thursday-Monday holiday period. This time around, there’s a key difference. While the first Hangover was a beloved comedy where audiences couldn’t wait for the gang to return, the sequel (while a huge hit) was met with a more mixed reaction. Due to this, the chances of #3 posting a similar debut weekend seems unlikely.

And then there’s the competition factor. In 2011, The Hangover Part II‘s opened against Kung Fu Panda 2, which was obviously going after a different audience. Now the Wolf Pack faces some serious competition in the form of Fast and Furious 6. I honestly was surprised when the decisions were made to open these titles against each other as I believe it will negatively effect numbers for both. Both Hangover and Furious are going after the younger male audience.

A fair comparison to what I believe could happen to this franchise is the Fockers trilogy with Robert De Niro and Ben Stiller. Audiences loved the original and were eager to see the second. The first sequel, Meet the Fockers, made a huge $279 million. By the time the third entry Little Fockers came around, audiences had begun to tire of the series and it only made $148 million. The first Hangover stormed multiplexes in summer 2009 with $277 million. The second in 2011 made $254 million. I don’t expect the third time to be the charm. It also doesn’t help that the trailers really haven’t been very funny.

Of course, there will be plenty of moviegoers ready to welcome the Wolf Pack back. I just don’t believe it will approach past entries. I’m actually more worried that my five-day prediction might be a little too high with Vin Diesel and company competing against it. And there’s also the second weekend of Star Trek Into Darkness, even though it opened lower than expectations. Maybe I’m wrong that audiences are giving up on this franchise, but that’s the feeling I get.

The Hangover Part III opening prediction: $77.4 million

Yep, that’s a full $58 million less than the second film’s take just two years ago and would be considered a pretty major disappointment.

Tomorrow on the blog, I’ll make my prediction for Fast and Furious 6. Stay tuned!