The Great Gatsby Box Office Prediction

Originally scheduled for release in December 2012, this weekend finally brings us the eagerly-awaited The Great Gatsby. From Romeo and Juliet and Moulin Rouge director Baz Luhrmann comes the fourth film adaptation of F. Scott Fitzgerald’s novel. Gatsby is headlined by Leonardo DiCaprio, Carey Mulligan, and Tobey Maguire in this romantic drama set in 1920s era New York.

The picture has had an aggressive marketing campaign. Go look at a magazine rack in your local supermarket and you’ll see Leo and Carey’s faces frequently. With a reported $127 million budget, Gatsby is certainly looking to make its mark domestically and worldwide. This is one title that has the potential to do greater business overseas than stateside.

While Warner Bros. decision to push back Gatsby to summer 2013 from the more Oscar-friendly December 2012 season was first met with confusion, the move is now looking to be perhaps a shrewd one. The main reason: there is really nothing out there right now that is primarily marketing to the female audience. We’ve still got Tony Stark and friends entering their second weekend with Iron Man 3 and the following weekend we will see Kirk and Spock in Star Trek Into Darkness. Memorial Day weekend brings Fast and Furious 6 and The Hangover Part III. All are titles more concerned with bringing in the dudes than the ladies. I would suspect some female significant others take their male counterparts to see the film this weekend because they watched Iron Man 3 last weekend.

With its star power driven by Leo and some effective trailers (not to mention a buzzed about soundtrack), Gatsby could be in a position to exceed expectations. Conventional wisdom would put the pic around a $30-35 million opening. Anything less would have to be considered a letdown due to the budget.

I’m going a little higher, just as I did with my Iron Man 3 projection (and that worked out pretty well). I went with $172.4M for the third Tony Stark adventure. It made slightly more with $174.1M. On Wednesday, I’ll have my projection for Iron Man 3‘s second weekend where it’ll certainly remain #1. Tomorrow, I’ll have my projection for the weekend’s other new release, Tyler Perry Presents Peeples.

Today, though, it’s about Gatsby. And it’s about predicting a healthy debut for it.

The Great Gatsby opening weekend projection: $41.3 million