The real box office battle is likely to occur between newcomer Pain and Gain and Oblivion‘s second frame this coming weekend, but there is a potential wild card with The Big Wedding, the ensemble comedy feature that debuts Friday.
Featuring an all-star cast that includes Robert De Niro, Katherine Heigl, Diane Keaton, Susan Sarandon, and Robin Williams, Wedding has seen a curiously muted marketing campaign. It feels a bit as if Lionsgate has little confidence with it.
That could be a sign that, for a lack of a better term, The Big Wedding sucks. That definitely wouldn’t be a shock – the trailer isn’t very funny and it looks derivative of a lot of other flicks.
The signs point to a weak opening – little fanfare, blah trailer. The cast, filled with famous faces, doesn’t contain one actor who can open a movie nowadays. The only thing this Wedding has in its favor: there is a serious dearth of movies out right now with appeal to the female audience. That factor alone could push it to a larger than expected opening.
Anything above $14-15 million would have to be looked at as a pleasant surprise and a strong showing from females could get it there. Anything below $10 million is pretty embarrassing… and it also wouldn’t surprise me if that happened. I’ll give this Wedding the benefit of the doubt that it reaches double digits, but not by much.
The Big Wedding opening weekend prediction: $11.2 million
Michael Bay’s action-comedy Pain and Gain hits theaters this weekend and will attempt to nab the #1 spot over the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion, which grossed a very solid $38 million this weekend.
Pain and Gain stars Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson, who have been omnipresent at the multiplexes in recent months. Wahlberg had a monster hit last summer with Ted and a considerable box office disappointment with January’s crime drama Broken City. The Rock, meanwhile, has been very busy. In February, it was the mid-size hit Snitch. In March, the G.I. Joe sequel. Pain and Gain for April. And for May, it’s the sixth installment in the Fast and Furious franchise.
Director Bay is mostly known for gargantuan budgeted action spectacles like Armageddon, Pearl Harbor, and the Transformers films. Pain and Gain comes with a relatively tiny $25 million budget so its highly likely to be profitable.
The combo of Wahlberg and Johnson could bring out the male and female audience. The trailers have been decent. There is, of course, still competition for the male audience with Oblivion and the female audience with this weekend’s other new entry The Big Wedding.
Pain and Gain has the potential to open bigger than my prediction. Anything over its $25 million budget for an opening weekend would be terrific. Anything below $16-17 million would be considered fairly disappointing. I’m going a little closer to the high end.
Will my predicted opening weekend gross be enough to vault it to #1? You’ll have to wait until Wednesday for my Top 5 predictions, but my prediction here is:
Pain and Gain opening weekend prediction: $23.8 million
Later this evening, my forecast for the other opener this weekend, The Big Wedding.
It’s not often that you see a performer literally become a movie star before your eyes on the silver screen, but such an occurrence took place two summers ago.
The film was Bridesmaids, the hilarious Kristin Wiig pic that became the comedy event of 2011, to the tune of an incredible $169 million domestic at the box office. We all know by now it vaulted Wiig from SNL standout to movie star.
To many, including me, the revelation was Melissa McCarthy as Megan, Maya Rudolph’s hilarious and straight talking future sister-in-law. Her performance was the highlight of the picture, so much so that it earned McCarthy a Supporting Actress Oscar nomination. That’s usually unheard of for a comedic performance.
And while her performance was filled with generous laugh out loud moments (airplane scene, wedding dress shopping scene), it’s a quieter scene between her and Wiig that gave Bridesmaids its heart.
The scene takes place after Wiig’s character Annie has hit rock bottom. She’s moved in with her mother (who likes to paint celebrities), alienated her about to married best friend in grand giant cookie smashing fashion, and given up on a promising relationship with a kind policeman. It is McCarthy’s character who manages to snap Annie out of her funk with a truly inspirational speech that is both humorous and touching. I remember watching this scene in the theater and when Megan finally tells Annie to stop blaming the world for her problems, the theater practically broke out in spontaneous applause.
This speech works because it’s well-written. More than that, it works because McCarthy delivers it so well and so convincingly. It elevates her character from simply comic relief to being the soul of the film. I would put forth that this scene is why McCarthy got that Oscar nomination. She deserved it.
And her movie career has only improved in the past two years. This spring, McCarthy headlined Identity Thief, which was a huge hit. This summer’s The Heat with Sandra Bullock is likely to be another blockbuster.
It all started here, however. McCarthy’s speech gave us the opportunity to watch a new movie star blossom in real time. It’s a brilliant performance in a perfect scene.
Summer 2012 was a, shall we say, interesting season for sci-fi titles where reaction ranged from a collective “meh” (the Total Recall remake) to a collective “what the hell was that?!?!” (Prometheus).
Summer 2013 brings us a slew of sci-fi titles from directors who are known for excelling at the genre. Of course, the highest profile entry has already been covered in my sequels preview, the J.J. Abrams directed Star Trek Into Darkness, the follow-up to the blockbuster 2009 original.
Who would’ve thought that when we knew him best for comical rap songs and clowning with Uncle Phil and Aunt Viv that Will Smith would turn into the premiere sci-fi star in the world? That’s what happened though and all we need to do is look at the evidence: Independence Day ($306M), Men in Black ($250M), Men in Black II ($190M), I, Robot ($144M), I Am Legend ($256M), and Men in Black 3 ($179M).
And even though that sterling track record shows Smith’s near infallibility in the genre, his new pic After Earth (June 7) may be a real test of his box office muscle. For starters, there was a time when the name M. Night Shyamalan got audiences into the theater. Lately though, the director’s films have been met with critical scorn and audience ambivalence, from 2006’s Lady in the Water to 2008’s The Happening to 2010’s The Last Airbender.
After Earth stars Smith and his real-life son Jaden star in this post-apocalyptic thriller that apparently gives Shyamalan a plot without his signature twists and turns. With a $130 million price tag, the film will need robust business domestically and overseas. I find the trailer to be pretty underwhelming and filled with the stilted dialogue delivery that has unfortunately become an M. Night staple. We’ll see if the Smith/Shyamalan combo is a winning one, but After Earth is a likely candidate for disappointing box office results.
World War Z (June 21) stars Brad Pitt and involves a worldwide zombie takeover. The pic, from Quantum of Solace director Marc Forster, has reportedly been a troubled production and the budget allegedly bloomed to nearly $200 million. The trailers are decent, but a legitimate question is whether audience will flock to see zombies taking over Earth when they get that on a certain beloved AMC TV show. Originally scheduled to be released last December, World War Z underwent reshoots last fall. I’m certainly curious to see it, but its box office forecast is a bit of a mystery at press time.
Guillermo del Toro is one of the most accomplished science fiction directors working today, having made the Hellboy flicks and Pan’s Labyrinth. On July 12, del Toro helms Pacific Rim, which involves giant frickin robots fighting giant fricking monsters. They had me at del Toro… Pacific Rim may not reach Transformers level numbers, but I’m willing to bet it’s a lot better. I’m in!
Director Neill Blomkamp burst onto the sci-fi scene with the great District 9 in the summer of 2009. It even managed to earn a Best Picture nomination. The futuristic thriller Elysium starring Matt Damon and Jodie Foster is his very eagerly awaited follow-up. It’s out August 9th. I was a huge admirer of District 9 and Elysium is one of my most anticipated pictures of the season.
Combining sci-fi with comedy, R.I.P.D. (July 19) teams Jeff Bridges and Ryan Reynolds as members of the Rest In Peace Department, officers killed in the line of duty who come back to fight crime. On paper, this sounded pretty interesting until I saw the trailer this week. Frankly, it looks like a low-rent Men in Black knock off and if this is the best they could do with the trailer, I’m skeptical.
Finally, August 23rd’s The Colony casts Laurence Fishburne and Bill Paxton in an ice age thriller that looks like it could be an effective little B movie… or totally forgettable.
And there’s your sci-fi fix for this upcoming summer season! The 2013 Summer Movie Preview will continue with the action/adventure genre and titles from Ryan Gosling, Channing Tatum, and Denzel Washington.
The science fiction thriller Oblivion starring Tom Cruise easily took the #1 spot at the box office this weekend and managed to outdo my expectations. Oblivion gave Cruise his fifth highest opening of all time, earning $37 million (above my $32.8M projection). This is good news for the star, whose box office track record has been spotty as of late. While the fourth Mission: Impossible was a huge blockbuster in 2011, recent titles Valkyrie and Jack Reacher were only mid-size performers, while Knight and Day and Rock of Ages were straight up disappointments.
One cause for concern for Oblivion: it earned a weak B- Cinemascore grade. With Pain and Gain opening next weekend to attract the male audience and Iron Man 3 around the corner in two weeks, long term prospects for Oblivion are questionable.
Last weekend’s champ 42 slipped to second with $17.7 million, a bit below my $19.7M projection. The Jackie Robinson story has amassed an impressive $54 million and looks assured to cross the $100 million mark.
Third place went to The Croods with $9.2 million (higher than my $8M projection). Box office dud Scary Movie V held up barely better in its sophomore weekend than I predicted with $6.1 million (I said $5.7M).
Finally, the expanded roll out of the Ryan Gosling/Bradley Cooper crime drama The Place Beyond the Pines didn’t match my expectations. I predicted it would be #4 with $6.4 million. It only managed a #6 opening with $4.9 million. This allowed G.I. Joe: Retaliation to place fifth with $5.7 million.
Tomorrow on the blog – I’ll have my prediction up for Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain, starring Mark Wahlberg and The Rock, as well as the ensemble comedy The Big Wedding. Those predictions will also be posted on http://www.boxofficeace.com, which you need to visit if you haven’t already. Stay tuned, my friends!
The 21st century kicked off with an undeserving Best Picture winner in my view and my favorite picture of 2000 was left out of the Top Five.
I have always felt that Ridley Scott’s megahit Gladiator is overrated, but it managed to win Best Picture. It’s not that I didn’t like the movie, but I maintain that it simply isn’t the awards juggernaut that it turned out to be.
Gladiator would win out over two Steven Soderbergh movies, Traffic and Erin Brockovich, as well as Ang Lee’s Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon and Lasse Hallstrom’s Chocolat.
My vote would have gone to Cameron Crowe’s marvelous Almost Famous, which shouldn’t have been left off the nominees. It’s certainly my favorite pic of that year.
I also would’ve given serious consideration to Darren Aronofsky’s terrific drug drama Requiem for a Dream, as well as Mary Harron’s American Psycho.
While Picture and Director usually match, this wasn’t the case this time around. Soderbergh would win that category for Traffic. He was also nominated for Brockovich. The other nominees: Ridley Scott, Ang Lee, and Stephen Daldry for Billy Elliot.
Once again, I would’ve included Cameron Crowe and Darren Aronofsky, for sure. It’s worth noting that Traffic is probably my second favorite movie of 2000 after Famous.
Russell Crowe would win Best Actor for Gladiator. A fine performance to be sure, even though I think Crowe was more deserving of a win for Michael Mann’s The Insider, which came out the year before. He was nominated, but Kevin Spacey in American Beauty took home the gold. Other nominees: Javier Bardem in Before Night Falls, Tom Hanks in Cast Away, Ed Harris in Pollock, and Geoffrey Rush for Quills.
Some other names for consideration: Denzel Washington in Remember the Titans and Michael Douglas for Traffic or Wonder Boys. And I unquestionably would’ve included the brilliant work of Christian Bale in American Psycho.
The Best Actress race wasn’t much of a competition. Julia Roberts was the frontrunner from the get-go for Erin Brockovich. She would win out over Joan Allen in The Contender, Juliette Binoche in Chocolat, Ellen Burstyn in Requiem for a Dream, and Laura Linney in You Can Count on Me.
I’m a big fan of Sofia Coppola’s The Virgin Suicides and would’ve nominated Kirsten Dunst for her work in that picture. Other considerations: Michelle Rodriguez in Girlfight and Cate Blanchett for The Gift.
Benicio Del Toro would win Supporting Actor for his solid work in Traffic, beating out Jeff Bridges in The Contender, Willem Dafoe in Shadow of the Vampire, Albert Finney for Erin Brockovich, and Joaquin Phoenix for Gladiator.
I didn’t feel The Contender was a very good film, but I definitely would’ve nominated Gary Oldman instead of Jeff Bridges in this category for that movie. I also would’ve considered Will Patton for his understated and effective performance in Remember the Titans.
Marcia Gay Harden was a surprise winner for Supporting Actress for her work in Pollock. The favorite was Kate Hudson in Almost Famous. She should have won. Other nominees: Judi Dench in Chocolat, Frances McDormand for Almost Famous, and Julie Walters for Billy Elliot.
Erika Christensen was terrific as Michael Douglas’s drug-addicted daughter in Traffic, yet she was snubbed. And, as always, I like to shout out some comedic performers who are pretty much always ignored. For 2000, how about Amanda Peet’s breakout performance as a dental assistant/aspiring hitman in The Whole Nine Yards?
In summary, Gladiator managed to win in a year that had much better nominees and the Academy got it wrong in my opinion to start out the new century.
Earlier this week, I kicked off my 2013 Summer Movie Preview by concentrating on the 13 sequels of the season. Part two focuses on just two pictures that aren’t sequels per se but rather are reboots of well-known superhero franchises. They have something else in common: the previous films focused solely on their title characters were not particularly well-received and these entries hope to rectify that.
Man of Steel (June 14) looks to reinvigorate the Superman franchise after 2006’s lackluster Superman Returns. Let’s travel back to that picture for a moment. Superman Returns was the heavily hyped return of Superman after a nearly 20 year absence from the silver screen. It had great pedigree: Bryan Singer, who directed the successful first two X-Men features, was behind the camera. It seems crazy now, but Superman Returns was genuinely being touted as a rival for Titanic, which at the time was the highest grossing movie ever.
And then…. it opened. It got mixed reviews and while it did make $200 million domestically, most figured it would at least go over $300 million. Its reputation has only worsened with time.
So what’s Warner Bros to do? Try, try again, of course. The studio recruited Zack Snyder, maker of 300 and Watchmen, to direct. Relative unknown Henry Cavill is Superman/Clark Kent and the supporting cast is filled with more known performers such as Amy Adams as Lois Lane, Michael Shannon, Russell Crowe, Kevin Costner, and Diane Lane. Once again, expectations are sky high. This could rival Iron Man 3 and Monsters University in the competition for biggest earning summer title. Or… it could go the route of Returns. Based on the excellent new trailer that was just released, I’m optimistic.
We move to The Wolverine, out July 26th. This is the second stand-alone Wolverine flick with Hugh Jackman in the title role. The first was 2009’s X-Men Origins: Wolverine, which made $179 million domestic in summer 2009. However… like with Superman Returns, critical and audience reaction was mixed. The gross for Origins was actually less than the second and third installments of the original X-Men trilogy. The Wolverine features our comic book hero doing his Wolverine thing in Japan. James Mangold, who last directed the disappointing Tom Cruise action flick Knight and Day, is behind the camera.
The Wolverine will attempt to satisfy X-Men fans in a way that Origins did not. The picture marks Jackman’s sixth turn as Wolverine, counting his great cameo in X-Men: First Class. And, yes, he’ll return for a seventh appearance in the sequel to First Class, out next summer.
Two beloved heroes. Two attempts at movie redemption. We’ll see what happens!
Next up on Summer Movie Preview – science fiction, from After Earth to Elysium and more… stay tuned!
**Blogger’s Note: This post has been updated on the evening of Thursday, April 18th to reflect my weekend prediction for The Place Beyond the Pines, which expands to over 1500 theaters tomorrow. I was not aware of that wide a count until this evening and my predictions reflects its expansion and predicted inclusion in the Top Five for this weekend.
Only one new wide release this weekend and it’s a major one – the Tom Cruise sci-fi thriller Oblivion. On Monday, I wrote a post outlining my prediction for the film, which can be found here:
With no new offerings this weekend, that only leaves the question of how holdovers will maintain. And the news is probably very good for last weekend’s champ, 42. The Jackie Robinson biopic had a higher than expected opening at $27.5 million last weekend. With a remarkable A+ Cinemascore grade, I look for the picture to hold up quite well in its sophomore weekend. And, frankly, moviegoers may simply be in the mood for something uplifting after this difficult week.
The same cannot be said for Scary Movie V, which bombed last weekend with an embarrassing $14.2 million debut. A hefty drop looks to be in order.
The Place Beyond the Pines with Bradley Cooper and Ryan Gosling has been performing well in limited release. This weekend, it expands to over 1500 screens and has an excellent shot at entering the Top Five.
Finally, The Croods and G.I. Joe: Retaliation should experience similar declines to what they’ve experienced in recent weekends.
And with that, my predictions for this weekend’s top five:
1. Oblivion
Predicted Gross: $32.8 million
2. 42
Predicted Gross: $19.7 million (representing a drop of 28%)
3. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $8 million (representing a drop of 39%)
4. The Place Beyond the Pines
Predicted Gross: $6.4 million
5. Scary Movie V
Predicted Gross: $5.7 million (representing a drop of 60%)
The summer of 2013 is scheduled to bring us (you guessed it) 13 sequels for our viewing pleasure or displeasure. This group of pictures kick off my 2013 Summer Movie Preview, which officially kicks off in just over two weeks with the release of what could be the biggest sequel of the season.
I have broken down the 13 films in five different categories, so let’s begin, shall we?
The May Heavy Hitters
Iron Man 3 (May 3) is the first 2013 Summer Movie and it has a legitimate shot of being the season’s highest grossing title. Its two predecessors both grossed just over $300 million domestically. It’s also important to keep in mind that we saw Tony Stark in last year’s largest blockbuster, The Avengers, which earned an astonishing $623 million. Iron Man 3 gives us a new director for the franchise, Shane Black, who takes over the franchise from Jon Favreau. We also have a new villain, the Mandarin played by Gandhi himself, Ben Kingsley. Iron Man 3 could and likely will outgross installments #1 and #2.
Two weeks after Iron Man returns, Captain Kirk and Spock are back on May 17th for Star Trek Into Darkness. In the summer of 2009, the restart of the franchise earned deserved critical acclaim and earned a terrific $257 million domestically. The sequel could blast past that number. It’s worth noting that director J.J. Abrams will follow-up this picture up with a small indie movie currently referred to as Star Wars: Episode VII.
Only a week after Kirk and Spock return, we’ve got two high-profile sequels being released on the same day. May 24th brings the third installment of The Hangover franchise with Bradley Cooper, Zack Galifianakis, and Ed Helms back for more debauchery. The 2009 original made $277 million and the 2011 follow-up cashed in with $254 million. I would predict the third reaches past $200 million as well, but probably less than part 2.
The Hangover Part III opens against the sixth (yes, sixth!) entry of the Fast and the Furious franchise. The whole crew is back from Vin Diesel to Paul Walker to The Rock to Ludacris and so on. Fast and Furious 6 will attempt to match the numbers of predecessor Fast Five, which was the series highest grosser at $209 million.
It is very likely that the May sequels will represent four of the five highest earning sequels of this summer. All four could be in the Top Ten earners of the season. Moving on…
The Kiddie Sequels
Summer 2013 brings us plenty of family-friendly sequels. The highest profile (and what is pretty much assured a Top 5 grossing spot) is Monsters University, Pixar’s follow-up to 2001’s Monsters Inc. The original took in $255 million twelve years ago and, once again, the sequel has a great shot at surpassing that number. It opens June 21st.
Almost certain to be another major hit is the sequel to Despicable Me, with Steve Carell back. The original grossed an impressive $251 million in the summer of 2010 and this looks earn similar numbers. I confess I’ve never seen the first, even though a coworker of mine keeps insisting over and over again that I watch it. It’s out July 3rd.
The Smurfs 2, out July 31, looks to match the numbers of the 2011 original which grossed $142 million. I would venture to say that if you liked the first, you’ll probably like the second. Neil Patrick Harris returns to headline the cast. Also in it: Smurfs.
Last and most likely least (at least financially) is Percy Jackson: Sea of Monsters (August 7),the one totally live-action offering. It’s the sequel to 2010’s Percy Jackson&The Olympians: The Lightning Thief, which earned a solid but unspectacular $88 million. I’m not so sure the follow-up matches that number.
Eh
This category represents three titles that I’m simply not too excited about. I’m also predicting this trio is likely to earn less than the originals.
We begin with Grown Ups 2, reuniting Adam Sandler, Kevin James, Chris Rock, David Spade, and Rob Schneider. The 2010 original amassed $162 million. Sandler’s been on a bit of a cold streak lately, with disappointments like Jack and Jill and last summer’s That’s My Boy. That may explain why this is coming out and while it’s virtually assured to cross the century mark, it might not be much over that. It’s out July 12th.
Red 2 reunites Bruce Willis, John Malkovich, and Helen Mirren and adds Anthony Hopkins and Catherine Zeta-Jones. The original action comedy made a surprising $90 million in 2010, but don’t be surprised to see this underperform. Red 2 is out July 19th.
300: Rise of an Empire (August 2) follows-up on the unexpected 2007 smash hit. There’s no original director Zack Snyder (he’ll have Man of Steel instead) or original star Gerard Butler to be found here. 300 made $210 million. This one likely won’t. NO OFFICIAL TRAILER YET.
The One That Might Get A Best Picture Nomination
That honor belongs to Before Midnight, the continuation of the romantic dramas starring Ethan Hawke and Julie Delpy. 1995’s Before Sunrise and 2004’s Before Sunset each made only $5 million, but were critical darlings. This one could inch a bit higher and rapturous reviews could make it an Oscar contender. Out May 24th.
The One That Could Kick Ass
What else? Kick-Ass 2 is the sequel to the 2010 original, which earned only $48 million domestic upon release. Since then, it’s developed a cult following. The superhero spoof was a tremendous amount of fun and I’m greatly anticipating this one. Kick-Ass 2 is out August 16th and has an excellent shot at outgrossing its predecessor.
And there you have it – 13 summer sequels for 2013. In case you’re wondering, the 2014 Summer sequels are already piling up, with new entries in the Spider-Man, Planet of the Apes, X-Men, Jurassic Park, and Transformers franchises.
Stay tuned for my next 2013 Summer Movie Preview post where I’ll cover Superman and Wolverine’s return to the multiplex.
Oblivion marks the sole new wide-release title opening this weekend. The sci-fi thriller from Tron: Legacy director Joseph Kosinski and starring Tom Cruise, Oblivion looks to be a real test of the star’s current box office power.
A little history. From the early 90s through the early part of the last decade, Tom Cruise was arguably the most bankable actor in Hollywood. During a lengthy time period, he starred in blockbuster after blockbuster, from the Mission: Impossible flicks to The Firm to A Few Good Men to Jerry Maguire to Minority Report to War of the Worlds and more.
Cruise’s box office history has been more checkered lately. While 2011’s Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol was a smash hit, his action comedy Knight and Day with Cameron Diaz was a disappointment. Other recent vehicles such as Valkyrie and December’s Jack Reacher were mid-size hits, not blockbusters.
Oblivion has the advantage of having the weekend to itself as far as new releases. It is worth noting that the current #1, 42, had a bigger than expected opening and is likely to have a robust second weekend, which could slightly eat into Oblivion‘s debut.
Reviews so far for Oblivion have been pretty solid and the trailers are decent. With a reported price tag of $120 million, Universal Pictures is certainly keeping their fingers crossed. There’s no doubt that Cruise is the main attraction here. The picture co-stars Morgan Freeman and Quantum of Solace Bond girl Olga Kurylenko, but the story here is whether Cruise still has the ability to headline a huge opening when not playing Ethan Hunt.
So what’s the range on what I believe Oblivion could open at? I think the high water mark could be as much as $50 million. A safer estimate would be around $40 million. Truth be told, I’m a little skeptical. As mentioned, there’s been nothing really wrong with the marketing campaign, but I’m just not so sure this will reach those lofty numbers. Anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be looked at as a considerable letdown. By the way, Oblivion is opening on a massive 3900+ screens.
Cruise is simply not the draw he used to be. It’s certainly feasible that Oblivion could gross $40 million or over and, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m going on the lower end of the spectrum, though and will predict:
Oblivion opening weekend prediction: $32.8 million
As always, I’ll be back on Wednesday with full Top Five predictions for the weekend, as the aforementioned 42 should hold up quite well in its second frame.
On a brief personal note, I’m writing this post while taking a break from being glued to the TV set this Monday night. Needless to say, my thoughts and sympathies go out to the great people of Boston this evening.
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