It’s the calm before the summer season storm as the weekend’s new releases both came in below my fairly modest projections.
Michael Bay’s Pain and Gain with Mark Wahlberg and Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson took the #1 spot with $20 million, under my $23.8M projection. While the true crime action/comedy had a meager $25 million budget and looks to be profitable, this is a pretty soft opening. More discouraging signs lie ahead – it received a low C+ Cinemascore grade, indicating Pain will fade fast.
I was on the money with my projection for the second weekend of Tom Cruise’s Oblivion. The sci-fi thriller did dip below 50% in its sophomore frame with $17.4 million. My prediction was $17.3M. Gold star!
The Jackie Robinson biopic 42 was third in its third weekend with $10.7 million (just below my $11.5M estimate).
The weekend’s other new release was the ensemble comedy The Big Wedding. With mostly brutal reviews and a muted marketing campaign, not many RSVP’d for this Wedding. It tanked with $7.5 million and a fourth place showing. I was more generous and predicted it’d open with $11.2M. Oops.
Rounding out the top five was the animated The Croods, which took in $6.5 million (I said $6.6M, so gold star once again).
As mentioned, this is the calm before next weekend’s box office storm in the form of Tony Stark and Iron Man 3, which officially kicks off the summer season. Look for my post tomorrow on the blog with my projection for how it performs next weekend. And check out http://www.boxofficeace.com – where you can also predict the box office gross for Iron Man‘s third go-round at the multiplex!
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