Oblivion Box Office Prediction

Oblivion marks the sole new wide-release title opening this weekend. The sci-fi thriller from Tron: Legacy director Joseph Kosinski and starring Tom Cruise, Oblivion looks to be a real test of the star’s current box office power.

A little history. From the early 90s through the early part of the last decade, Tom Cruise was arguably the most bankable actor in Hollywood. During a lengthy time period, he starred in blockbuster after blockbuster, from the Mission: Impossible flicks to The Firm to A Few Good Men to Jerry Maguire to Minority Report to War of the Worlds and more.

Cruise’s box office history has been more checkered lately. While 2011’s Mission Impossible: Ghost Protocol was a smash hit, his action comedy Knight and Day with Cameron Diaz was a disappointment. Other recent vehicles such as Valkyrie and December’s Jack Reacher were mid-size hits, not blockbusters.

Oblivion has the advantage of having the weekend to itself as far as new releases. It is worth noting that the current #1, 42, had a bigger than expected opening and is likely to have a robust second weekend, which could slightly eat into Oblivion‘s debut.

Reviews so far for Oblivion have been pretty solid and the trailers are decent. With a reported price tag of $120 million, Universal Pictures is certainly keeping their fingers crossed. There’s no doubt that Cruise is the main attraction here. The picture co-stars Morgan Freeman and Quantum of Solace Bond girl Olga Kurylenko, but the story here is whether Cruise still has the ability to headline a huge opening when not playing Ethan Hunt.

So what’s the range on what I believe Oblivion could open at? I think the high water mark could be as much as $50 million. A safer estimate would be around $40 million. Truth be told, I’m a little skeptical. As mentioned, there’s been nothing really wrong with the marketing campaign, but I’m just not so sure this will reach those lofty numbers. Anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be looked at as a considerable letdown. By the way, Oblivion is opening on a massive 3900+ screens.

Cruise is simply not the draw he used to be. It’s certainly feasible that Oblivion could gross $40 million or over and, frankly, it wouldn’t surprise me. I’m going on the lower end of the spectrum, though and will predict:

Oblivion opening weekend prediction: $32.8 million

As always, I’ll be back on Wednesday with full Top Five predictions for the weekend, as the aforementioned 42 should hold up quite well in its second frame.

On a brief personal note, I’m writing this post while taking a break from being glued to the TV set this Monday night. Needless to say, my thoughts and sympathies go out to the great people of Boston this evening.