Two high-profile films open at the box office this weekend, along with two other talked-about flicks expanding their theater counts. We may well see a real battle for the #1 spot between the newbies: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 and the fifth installment in the Scary Movie franchise. Then we have the expansions of two well-reviewed pictures: Danny Boyle’s thriller Trance and The Place Beyond the Pines starring Ryan Gosling and Bradley Cooper. Added to the mix: the second frame of last weekend’s champ The Evil Dead, the third weekend of G.I. Joe, and fourth weekend for The Croods. Oh, and the second weekend of the Jurassic Park re-release. Can you say busy weekend?
The baseball drama 42 focuses on the career of the legendary Jackie Robinson, with Chadwick Boseman as the title character and Harrison Ford as Branch Rickey. The pic has been well-publicized, especially during the NCAA basketball championship. Its release coinciding with the start of baseball season certainly can’t hurt. Less than two years ago, another baseball drama Moneyball opened to a solid $19 million. I believe 42 has the potential to go beyond that number. Its ceiling could be as high as $30 million, but I’m projecting a gross in the mid 20s.
Scary Movie V is a tough one. It’s been seven long years since the fourth installment of the successful franchise. The third film opened to an astonishing $48 million and #4 earned a fantastic $40 million opening. Starring tabloid legends Charlie Sheen, Lindsay Lohan, and Katt Williams, it’s hard to ignore the feeling that this film series time has come and gone. However, it may be foolish to underestimate its potential. That leaves a real quandary… I believe Scary Movie V could shock us all and having an opening similar to its predecessors. That would mean it easily opens #1, most likely. But I’m going to go the opposite direction and predict that father time has caught up with the franchise.
Aforementioned critical hits The Place Beyond the Pines and Trance expand to approximately 450 and 400 theaters, respectively. The two films could post solid per-screen averages that will help decide how much further they expand. To give you an idea of relation to screen openings, both 42 and Scary Movie are opening on around 3000 screens.
The Evil Dead scared up a very impressive $26 million opening last weekend. It also earned a dismal C+ Cinemascore average. Horror flicks tend to drop big anyway and Dead should follow suit. The Jurassic Park re-release posted a good $18 million opening for fourth place. A drop of at least 45-55% seems likely. And last weekend’s #2 and #3 G.I. Joe Retaliation and The Croods should swap places. With their percentage drops, this will likely cause The Croods to stay put in third place.
And with all that, my predictions for the weekend:
1. 42
Predicted Gross: $24.7 million
2. Scary Movie V
Predicted Gross: $22.6 million
3. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $14.3 million (representing a drop of 31%)
4. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
Predicted Gross: $10.5 million (representing a drop of 49%)
5. The Evil Dead
Predicted Gross: $9.1 million (representing a drop of 65%)
6. Jurassic Park 3D
Predicted Gross: $8.8 million (representing a drop of 53%)
With their openings in a low number of venues, I’ll predict $3.3 million for The Place Beyond the Pines and $1.9 million for Trance.
And there’s your predictions. Check back through the weekend for updates and Sunday for final numbers!
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