The first weekend of April brings the very real possibility of three movies being #1, with even an outside shot of a fourth taking the top spot. That is usually not the case when making predictions and this is shaping up to be a very interesting weekend.
For starters, we have the big debut of The Evil Dead remake. On Monday, I wrote an extensive post with my projection for the pic’s opening weekend. It can be found linked below for your review. In short, I’m predicting Dead debuts with just below $20 million.
https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/04/01/the-evil-dead-box-office-prediction/
Now… will that be enough for it to debut at #1? That depends on how far the Easter champ G.I. Joe: Retaliation falls in its second frame and also how far the animated The Croods drops in its third weekend.
The first G.I. Joe in 2009 dropped a hefty 59% in its second weekend. The sequel didn’t quite match the opening gross of its predecessor (while still posting a solid opening). However, audiences seem to like the follow-up more (it earned an A- Cinemascore grade to the original’s B+). I do believe Retaliation will dip over 50% in its sophomore frame, but not as far as the first did.
And there’s The Croods third weekend. The Dreamworks kiddie pic dropped a reasonable 39% last weekend and it could certainly drop that far or more this time around. Interestingly, a similar title from three years ago, How to Train Your Dragon, dropped a scant 14% in its third weekend. If The Croods dropped 25% or less, it would stand an excellent shot at returning to #1. It’s certainly possible, though I’m predicting it falls more than that.
Then there’s the return of 1993’s Jurassic Park to the multiplex. Celebrating its 20th anniversary, the Steven Spielberg dinosaur tale is getting a 3D makeover. A gross of over $20 million certainly isn’t outside of the realm of possibility. I’m skeptical. There certainly seems to be no shortage of the film’s availability on TV (not to mention DVD) and I’m just not sure audiences will flock to the theater to see it. I picture an opening between $10-$15 million.
Finally, Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor is likely to drop from third to fifth. Perry’s films usually have big openings and Temptation did so with an impressive $21 million last weekend. They also have large drops in their second frames (well over 50%, closer to 60%) and I expect Temptation will follow suit.
So how does it all shake out? Here’s my predictions for the top five this weekend:
1. The Evil Dead
Predicted Gross: $19.8 million
2. G.I. Joe: Retaliation
Predicted Gross: $18.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)
3. The Croods
Predicted Gross: $18.2 million (representing a drop of 32%)
4. Jurassic Park 3D
Predicted Gross: $12.8 million
5. Tyler Perry’s Temptation: Confessions of a Marriage Counselor
Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 59%)
Be sure to check back this weekend for my update when the final numbers roll in!
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