The Evil Dead Box Office Prediction

An interesting battle could play out at the box office this weekend as The Evil Dead remake could potentially snag the #1 spot over the second weekend of G.I. Joe: Retaliation.

The horror remake has been quite the profitable sub-genre over the past decade as studios have mined popular flicks from the 70s and 80s. Here’s a breakdown of films over the past decade and what they’ve grossed in their opening weekends:

Friday the 13th (2009): $40 million

A Nightmare on Elm Street (2010): $32 million

The Texas Chainsaw Massacre (2003): $28 million

Dawn of the Dead (2004): $26 million

Halloween (2007): $26 million

The Amityville Horror (2005): $23 million

My Bloody Valentine (2009): $21 million

When a Stranger Calls (2006): $21 million

Prom Night (2008): $20 million

The Omen (2006): $16 million

The Hills Have Eyes (2006): $15 million

Left House on the Left (2009): $14 million

Here are the not very successful examples:

The Thing (2011): $8 million

Black Christmas (2006): $3 million

As you can see, for the most part, the horror remake can usually be counted on for an opening in the mid-teens or higher. Will that be the case for The Evil Dead?

The original is from 1981 and is an ultra low-budget and supremely gory Sam Raimi pic that’s a hell of a lot of fun. It spawned two well-regarded sequels, 1987’s Evil Dead 2 and 1993’s Army of Darkness. This trilogy of films are known just as much for their comedic aspects compared to the gore aspects, something that sets this franchise apart from the others.

When you look at the highest opening weekend grossers, you see the horror franchises representing Jason, Freddy, Michael Myers, and Leatherface. It’s not hard to figure out – these are the slasher classics of their era that spawned countless sequels. The remakes had the interest of moviegoers by title alone.

Younger folks (who typically make up a sizable portion of the horror flick audience) may not know a whole lot about The Evil Dead. And they certainly don’t to the degree that they know the aforementioned entries. Still, the trailers for The Evil Dead are pretty effective and even non-horror fanatics are probably aware the previous trilogy existed. Frankly, I think it looks pretty damn good and it currently sits at 79% on Rotten Tomatoes.

A better comparison for how The Evil Dead performs might just be last year’s The Cabin in the Woods, a slasher flick with comedic overtones that was clearly an homage to the original Dead. Cabin garnered very positive reviews, but managed a rather unimpressive $14.7 million opening.

Still, Evil Dead would appear heading towards a higher gross, though it’s very unlikely to match the numbers of the more well-known remakes. Anything above $25 million would be considered a terrific gross. It’s possible, but I don’t see it happening.

The Evil Dead seems more primed for a high teens to low-twenties opening weekend. Anything below $15 million would be considered pretty disappointing. Ironically, the budget is reported to be $15 million, so  it’s bound to be profitable regardless.

A gross in the area that I’m predicting puts it on a crash course to have a close competition with G.I. Joe‘s sophomore weekend. Here is my estimate:

The Evil Dead opening weekend prediction: $19.8 million

On Wednesday, be sure to check back for my full weekend projections, where I’ll reveal whether or not I believe Evil Dead gets that #1 slot. Stay tuned!