Month: March 2013

Magic Mike Movie Review

It’s probably safe to say that I am not the target audience for Magic Mike, 2012’s smash hit that shocked box office watchers last summer when it grossed nearly $40 million in its first weekend and over $100 million domestically by the end of its run.

In its opening weekend, 73% of its audience was female. Hence me not being the target audience. And while I know so many of you will be shocked by this, I have also never been involved in the world of male stripping.

Magic Mike contributed to an excellent 2012 for star Channing Tatum. Last year provided three blockbusters for him: this, The Vow, and 21 Jump Street. Tatum was the flavor of 2012, just as Ryan Gosling was the flavor of 2011. Mr. Tatum will try to replicate that success in 2013, with the G.I. Joe sequel and this summer’s White House Down with Jamie Foxx.

Steven Soderbergh is, frankly, the reason I chose to spend two hours with Magic Mike. The director is known for making unpredictable choices and working at a breakneck pace. In the last six years alone, he’s directed eight features: Che, The Girlfriend Experience, The Informant!, Contagion, Haywire, Side Effects, the upcoming HBO Liberace biopic Behind the Candelabra, and this. He’s directed two of my favorite pictures of the last twenty years: 1998’s Out of Sight and 2000’s Traffic. He’s also responsible for the Ocean’s Eleven trilogy that made boatloads of money and gave a nice excuse for megastars like Clooney, Pitt, and Damon to hang out.

I realize that watching Magic Mike because of Mr. Soderbergh is not the reason most audience members saw it. That honor belongs to Mr. Tatum. Over the past two years, it’s been Gosling and Tatum that have worked their way into the hearts of female movie fans. From my perspective, I’m happy to report the two share something in common: they are both very good actors.

Magic Mike is loosely based on Tatum’s real-life experiences as a male stripper. In the film, he plays the title character, an ambitious entrepreneur who makes most of his money working at Xquisite Strip Club in Tampa. We meet the quirky cast of coworkers from the club, including the owner Dallas, in a terrific performance from Matthew McConaughey. Mike also discovers a new star for the club Adam (Alex Pettyfer), who he mentors with mixed results. Mike also falls for Adam’s sister Brooke (Cody Horn).

The screenplay, from Reid Carolin, is often pretty standard stuff. The romance between Mike and Brooke feels a little underwritten and the business about Adam getting involved with drugs is something we’ve seen in dozens of movies. This doesn’t add anything new to that dynamic.

However, Magic Mike succeeds due to a fine performance from Tatum. I suspect Mr. Tatum will have a career similar to Matt Damon. Tatum is good at comedy (21 Jump Street), action, and drama, something that can be said for Damon as well. Tatum is also an excellent dancer… I’m not sure if Jason Bourne would look right busting a move to Ginuwine’s “Pony”, as Channing does here.

It also succeeds because Soderbergh is a great director who gets the most out of this material, even if the screenplay isn’t too original. The subject matter is pretty original though and credit goes to Tatum for using his life experiences and turning it into a blockbuster film.

On a final note, isn’t it wonderful to see McConaughey blossom into such a fantastic actor? He deserved the Oscar buzz he got for this performance, even if he didn’t end up nominated.

So while Magic Mike wasn’t made for me, I was pleasantly surprised by it.

Todd’s Rating: *** (out of four)

Box Office Predictions: March 8-10

As readers of my blog know, I went into detailed explanation on Monday predicting the opening weekend box office gross for Oz The Great and Powerful, 2013’s most high-profile release opening Friday. For those who have yet to see it, here’s the link covering that subject:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/oz-the-great-and-powerful-box-office-prediction/

While Oz will undoubtedly rule the weekend, there is one more wide release out: the Colin Farrell action/thriller Dead Man Down. I expect this release will not perform well. The ad campaign has been pretty lacking and it appears destined to join other generically titled action flicks that have all bombed this year. Think The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, and Parker. Farrell is certainly not a box office draw. Even his much higher profile Total Recall remake did lackluster numbers last summer.

On the holdovers front, Jack the Giant Slayer was a big financial disappointment in its debut last weekend, grossing a meager $27 million (peanuts compared to its nearly $200 million dollar price tag). With direct competition from Oz, it’s likely to drop over 50 percent and further its reputation as the first significant bomb of 2013. The comedy 21&Over also debuted with bad results last weekend, grossing under $9 million. Its slide may not be quite as hefty as Slayer‘s, but it may not be much better. Finally, Identity Thief is likely to have the smallest decline as it enters its fifth weekend.

And with that, we’re off the see my Top Five predictions for the weekend where Oz is all anyone is talking about:

1. Oz The Great and Powerful

Predicted Gross: $87.4 million

2. Jack the Giant Slayer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)

3. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Dead Man Down

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. 21&Over

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Check back over the weekend as the results for Oz start rolling in and on Sunday when final numbers are released!

Movies You Might Not Know: Harrison Ford Edition

Harrison Ford has an amazing career spanning four decades of film history, most notably playing two of the most iconic characters to ever grace the screen: Han Solo and Indiana Jones in a total of seven movies.

That tally will soon be added to, as Mr. Ford is set to return as Han Solo in either Star Wars Episode VII or one of the spin-off pictures. And a return to Indiana Jones certainly cannot be ruled out, if even the 2008 installment Indiana Jones and the Kingdom of Crystal Skull was met with a mixed response (it still made tons of money).

As for the near future, Ford will appear in three high-profile releases in 2013: the Jackie Robinson biopic 42 (out in April), the big-budget science fiction thriller Ender’s Game (November), and as a legendary newscaster in Anchorman: The Legend Continues (December). It could be Harrison’s best year at the box office in quite some time.

Beyond Mr. Solo and Dr. Jones, Ford has starred in some other very well-regarded movies, including Blade Runner, Witness, and The Fugitive. And there was his stint as Jack Ryan in both 1992’s Patriot Games and 1994’s Clear and Present Danger. 

Here are two more films featuring Harrison Ford that you might not know and are both worth watching. First, the 1988 mystery Frantic, directed by Roman Polanski. It stars Ford as a doctor visiting Paris whose wife disappears, leading to all sorts of international intrigue. Frantic has a distinct Hitchcock vibe to it, Ford’s performance is solid, and it’s definitely worth a look.

The same can be said for 1990’s Presumed Innocent, a very entertaining legal thriller starring Ford as a prosecutor accused of killing his mistress. This one will keep you guessing throughout and, once again, features a first-rate performance from the star. Presumed Innocent was considerably more of a box office hit than Frantic, but it’s been over 20 years since its release and if you’re not aware of it, seek it out.

Oz The Great and Powerful Box Office Prediction

I normally wait until Wednesday to make my box office predictions for the upcoming weekend. While I have no intention of changing that practice, I will from time to time make an early prediction under special circumstances.

This coming weekend provides such a circumstance. In short, when an especially eagerly awaited release is set to debut, my projection will come a little earlier. I’m doing this for one main reason: I don’t want to be influenced by the inevitable flurry of articles likely to appear during the week pontificating on how Oz the Great and Powerful
will perform this weekend. I choose to pontificate first (especially due to the extreme lack of pontificating going on generally around the world at the moment).

I would expect to see similar early posts over the coming months on titles such as Iron Man 3, Man of Steel, and The Lone Ranger, among others.

However, we begin with what is unquestionably the biggest release of 2013 so far: Sam Raimi’s Oz the Great and Powerful. The prequel to one of the most beloved movies of all time stars James Franco, Michelle Williams, Rachel Weisz, and Mila Kunis.

Disney has gone all out marketing the film and raising its profile over the last several months, complete with a Super Bowl spot and constantly running ads on TV. The total budget, including the hefty marketing campaign, reportedly tops out at $325 million dollars. With that kind of money behind it, anything less than a smash hit will be considered a major letdown.

With its second weekend of March release date, it’s no secret Disney is attempting to replicate the success of another one of their titles released the same weekend three years ago: Tim Burton’s Alice in Wonderland, starring Johnny Depp. Watching the Oz trailers, it’s certainly marketed with the same vibe as the aforementioned mega-blockbuster. Wonderland currently stands as having the 14th biggest opening ever with $116.1 million. Disney would be over the moon to see those kinds of numbers for Oz.

I’m not so sure. First off, if Oz grosses over $100 million this weekend, mission accomplished for Disney. While the two titles are alike in many ways, Wonderland had the added benefit of having one of the biggest movie stars on the planet with their name above the title. There was probably a fair amount of moviegoers who went to see it simply because Depp was in it. Oz does not have that luxury. It’s filled with well-known actors, but none of them are box office draws. It’s worth noting that Robert Downey Jr. considered headlining the film at one point, but declined. His participation would have likely increased my estimate for Oz considerably, to the tune of an additional $15-$20 million dollars.

Sam Raimi’s film does have the name recognition thing going for it, though. It’s hard to find anyone who hasn’t seen (and loved) 1939’s The Wizard of Oz, a movie that picks up fans with every passing generation. It is certainly the main selling point here.

So far, reviews are mixed. That’s good enough. In many ways, Oz is critic-proof and its performance could only be hurt if it was savaged by critics. That does not appear to be the case whatsoever.

A more fair comparison for what Oz accomplishes this weekend may just be a film from the very recent past, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey. That, too, had a built-in audience eager to see it. It also received mixed reviews. And frankly, its box office performance in its inaugural weekend seems more likely to resemble what Oz will do. The Hobbit earned an $84.6 million opening in December.

Director Sam Raimi is certainly no stranger to blockbuster releases. He directed the Tobey Maguire Spiderman trilogy. The first film in that series debuted in 2002 to the best opening of all time (it now stands at #15, right behind Alice in Wonderland).

The flexibility as to what Oz grosses is pretty wide. Anything below $75 million will be seen as low, no matter how Disney spins it. Anything above $100 million would be a bit surprising and certainly amazing news for the Mouse Factory. My estimate puts it slightly above Hobbit territory:

Final Prediction

Oz the Great and Powerful: $87.4 million opening weekend

That prediction would give Oz the 33rd largest opening ever, in between Spiderman 2 and Fast Five. That number would likely be seen as a very solid opening, but how it holds up in subsequent weekends remains to be seen. If I had to further estimate, I’d say its chances of making more than my prediction is greater than its chances of making less, even though something in the low to middle 80s is quite possible. I don’t see it going below $75 million, but we’ll see.

On Wednesday, I will be back with my full predictions for the weekend’s Top Five. Special openings call for special blog posts and I wanted to get the Oz projection out now. Stay tuned!

The Arnold Classics: Schwarzenegger’s Best Movies

To many of us in beautiful Columbus, Ohio – “The Arnold Classic” means a lot of increased traffic, packed bars and restaurants, and a lot of folks walking around Cap City that you wouldn’t normally see.

However, for the purposes of this blog originating out of Columbus, “The Arnold Classics” is a group of those terrific Schwarzenegger action flicks. Being that Arnold’s CBus weekend is coming to a close, it felt appropriate to name my personal Top Five “Arnold Classics”.

This is certainly a debatable list. You’ll notice none of Arnold’s comedies made the cut. There’s probably a contingent of folks out there that would advocate for Twins or Kindergarten Cop. They are pretty solid comedies and certainly better than his later comedies like Junior and Jingle All the Way, but not Top 5 material in my book.

There’s 80s titles such as Conan the Barbarian and Commando. Good solid action flicks that again didn’t quite make the cut. And there’s also guilty pleasure favorites for me – such as 1987’s The Running Man, which was kind of The Hunger Games before that franchise existed. That film would likely be ranked #6 for me.

A Top Five “Arnold Classics” must be selected, though, so here we go:

5. True Lies (1994)

Ahnuld’s third collaboration with James Cameron is a whole lot of fun. This big-budget action spectacle was a big bounce back for the star, who’d suffered a box office disaster the year before with the mediocre Last Action Hero. Featuring Arnold doing what he does best and with a great supporting performance from Jamie Lee Curtis, True Lies is a treat.

4. Terminator 2: Judgment Day (1991)

And here is where the debate begins. Many film buffs have engaged in endless arguments as to whether the original or its sequel is the best. I’m an original guy, as you’ll see. This should not, however, take away from one of the greatest sequels of all time, with some truly revolutionary special effects and a memorable nemesis in Robert Patrick’s T1000. Even Eddie Furlong’s atrocious acting can be forgiven due to the quality of material in the James Cameron film.

3. Total Recall (1990)

Paul Verhoeven’s sci-fi action extravaganza is one of the genre’s classics. Based on a Philip K. Dick work, Arnold’s mission to mars is a blast. Featuring a great turn from Sharon Stone as his deceiving wife (“Consider that a divorce!”) and some terrific effects, there is only one Total Recall (Colin Farrell remake be damned).

2. The Terminator (1984)

James Cameron’s original Terminator is what broke Ahnuld out as a huge movie star. Unlike its sequel, Schwarzenegger is the villain here and he’s marvelous. We all know the famous lines by now. The Terminator is one of the most influential movies of the past three decades.

1. Predator (1987)

My personal favorite. John McTiernan’s Predator is a perfect action film with the Governator delivering one classic quip after another (“Get to the choppahhhhh!”). As an 80s action film buff, it doesn’t get any better than this.

And there you have it! My Top 5 Arnold Classics for the Arnold Classic weekend. I’ll be back with much more on the blog soon (couldn’t resist the lame and obvious here).

Movies You Might Not Know: Leno and Letterman Edition

Over the past two decades, I have followed the saga known as the Late Night Wars intensely. The comedic performers who grace our TV screens late at night has been filled with serious drama that has risen to almost Shakespearean levels at times.

This was never more true than in the early 90s when late night king Johnny Carson made the decision to give up his throne after 30 years. The question on the minds of TV watchers was an obvious one: would Jay Leno or David Letterman be given the coveted “Tonight Show” gig? The dynamic between the two performers had a history of its own with Jay getting his biggest break by Dave featuring him regularly on his 12:30 show that followed Johnny.

We all know that it was Mr. Leno who received the honor. What you may not know is the fascinating back story behind it all. It’s a tale first told in a book of the same title by NY Times writer Bill Carter. The novel would be turned into an HBO movie that is definitely worth seeking out.

The Late Shift focuses on the rough office politics that led to Leno’s ascendancy to the “Tonight” throne and Letterman’s eventual move to CBS to directly compete with his rival. We see Leno driven at all costs to obtain the gig, even hiding in a closet at one point to eavesdrop on a network executives conference call. He is aided by his ruthless producer Helen Kushnick, played wonderfully by Kathy Bates.

The casting is a mixed bag. Daniel Roebuck plays Leno as more of a direct impersonation, while John Michael Higgins acquits himself well as Dave. Higgins doesn’t attempt to do a Letterman impersonation, but rather embody the often prickly and difficult personality that those who’ve researched Mr. Letterman are aware of. It works. As the ultra powerful Hollywood agent Mike Ovitz, Treat Williams gives a solid performance. One unfortunate bit of casting is well-known celebrity impressionist Rich Little as Mr. Carson. It seems gimmicky. Too bad they didn’t get Kevin Spacey to portray the Late Night King. His Carson is terrific. Here’s an example of the actor doing his impression on Mr. Letterman’s program:

The Late Shift is a solid movie. It’s especially interesting to look at from a historical perspective. As we watch the infighting between the main players and their teams, we can’t help but think of what would occur nearly two decades later when Mr. Leno and Mr. Conan O’Brien experienced a similar battle for the “Tonight” throne.

And just yesterday, reports broke that NBC is working on a plan to bring Jimmy Fallon in to host next year. Watching The Late Shift and remembering the recent actions with Conan, there’s a good chance Jay Leno won’t slip quietly from the late night landscape.

In closing, The Late Shift is a Movie You Might Not Know about some television legends you know quite well. It’s worth a look.

Box Office Results: Mar 1-3

Jack the Giant Slayer had a clear #1 opening at the box office this weekend and managed to exceed my predicted gross. However, the news is still not good for Warner Bros.

As mentioned in my predictions post on Wednesday, anything below a $30 million opening weekend would be considered a massive disappointment for Bryan Singer’s $190 million budgeted Jack and the Beanstalk tale. The picture grossed $27.2 million, slightly higher than my $25.4M projection. Long term domestic prospects don’t look great, as Sam Rami’s high-profile Oz the Great and Powerful is expected to open huge next weekend (more on that this Wednesday).

Meanwhile, Identity Thief continues post higher grosses than I’m predicting. Thief slid only one spot to #2, earning $9.7 million in its fourth weekend, above my $8.2M estimate. The Melissa McCarthy comedy looks to end its domestic run with an impressive gross of around $130 million.

The raunchy comedy 21&Over failed to connect with its target audience of teens and 20-somethings, grossing a low $8.8 million, less than half of my $18M projection. On the same weekend last year, Project X (a similar film going for the same crowd) earned a very good $20M opening, but 21&Over didn’t come close to repeating that business, despite a rather robust marketing campaign.

Continuing the trend of films under performing, horror sequel The Last Exorcism Part II opened fifth with a small $7.7 million, below my $10.6M estimate. Like other horror titles, expect this one to fall quickly next weekend.

In the four spot, Snitch made $7.8 million in its second weekend, right around my $7.3M projection. Well out of the Top Ten, the submarine thriller Phantom wound up with a pathetic opening of $470,000 – representing one of the worst wide openings in box office history. I was clearly being way too generous when I guessed it’d made $2.3 million.

Be sure to check back this Wednesday for next weekend’s predictions, when Oz the Great and Powerful hits multiplexes. The Sam Raimi film is by far expected to post the largest opening of the year so far. The Colin Farrell action thriller Dead Man Down also opens. Stay tuned my friends!

The 007 Files: The Future of James Bond

As you likely know, I’ve spent a great deal of time on this blog discussing and evaluating all 23 official James Bond pictures. This was capped off by ranking all 23 007 entries from #1 to #23. Additionally, I’ve named my top (00) 7 Bond Villains, Bond Girls, and Bond Theme Songs.

With all the films blogged about, this leads to what could my last 007 Files post for awhile. It begins with a natural question: What is the future of the James Bond franchise?

For the immediate future, the answer appears clear. Daniel Craig has achieved worldwide acclaim for his portrayal of the super agent. Last year’s Skyfall reached new heights at the box office, as it grossed over a billion dollars around the globe.

As much as moviegoers love Craig, we must look at Father Time. I didn’t realize this until I began writing the blog post, but today marks the actor’s 45th birthday. For some context, Sean Connery was 41 when he made his last official entry, Diamonds Are Forever. He would return 12 years later in the unofficial Bond pic Never Say Never Again (a film I will get around to writing a post about eventually). Timothy Dalton was 45 when his second and last entry Licence to Kill came out. Pierce Brosnan was 49 when his finale, Die Another Day, was released in 2002. The exception to the 40s rule was Roger Moore, who finally gave up the role at age 57 in A View to a Kill. Moore was criticized for staying in the role too long.

If we assume that we’ll get a new Bond feature every 2-3 years (which seems likely), I would guess we are at precisely the mid-point of Mr. Craig’s tenure as 007. Three more Craig entries would have him playing the role into his early-mid fifties. I simply don’t think he’ll go beyond that.

Imagining there are three more Craig/Bond films, this begs another question: How good will they be? The immediate follow-up, possibly coming out in late 2014, has giant shoes to fill. It will suffer endless comparisons to Skyfall, just as Quantum of Solace was compared to Casino Royale. 

At the end of Skyfall, we could see the direction the franchise was heading towards with Naomie Harris as Moneypenny, Ralph Fiennes as the new M, and even a young Q. While Quantum was a direct sequel to Casino, Skyfall was a self-contained picture. I suspect that’s what the producers will do from now on. There had been talk of shooting the next two entries back-to-back. This idea has since been scrapped for now. It’s not hard to figure out why the producers wanted to do this. They wish to maximize their use of Mr. Craig for as many pictures as possible. Rumor has it that it was Skyfall director Sam Mendes who squashed the back-to-back notion in order for him to say yes to returning to the director’s chair. If this turns out true, Mendes will be the first director to helm back-to-back Bond adventures since John Glen, who directed every 007 pic in the 1980s.

Bottom line: the next seven to nine years seems secure in Bond world, with a beloved 007 playing the lead. It’s what comes after that which will be truly intriguing. Yes, there will be a new Bond at some point. And I feel sorry for whomever it is. George Lazenby was relentlessly criticized for his portrayal. While much of this was deserved, there’s no question part of it was due to audiences not wanting to let Sean Connery go. Even Craig’s initial casting was met with disappointment from Bond fans, as many were pleased with Mr. Brosnan and leery of a new 007. Those fears quickly dissipated with the release of Casino Royale.

Whatever actor is cast as the next Bond will unquestionably face enormous scrutiny from a public who will not want to let Craig go. It’s up to producers Barbara Broccoli and Michael Wilson to hit their casting out of the park, just as they did with Craig.

And while there are certainly many more questions to be discussed, one thing seems certain. The Bond franchise is going nowhere. Not in the short term. And not in the long term.

On a final note, I would encourage all Bond lovers to watch the documentary Everything Or Nothing, released late last year. The feature length documentary was made to celebrate the 50th anniversary of the franchise. It has interviews with all six Bonds, the producers, writers, directors, and many more. Everything Or Nothing is required viewing for those of us who’ve grown to love the series. I highly recommend it and you can catch it on Netflix right now.