Box Office Predictions: March 8-10

As readers of my blog know, I went into detailed explanation on Monday predicting the opening weekend box office gross for Oz The Great and Powerful, 2013’s most high-profile release opening Friday. For those who have yet to see it, here’s the link covering that subject:

https://toddmthatcher.wordpress.com/2013/03/04/oz-the-great-and-powerful-box-office-prediction/

While Oz will undoubtedly rule the weekend, there is one more wide release out: the Colin Farrell action/thriller Dead Man Down. I expect this release will not perform well. The ad campaign has been pretty lacking and it appears destined to join other generically titled action flicks that have all bombed this year. Think The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, and Parker. Farrell is certainly not a box office draw. Even his much higher profile Total Recall remake did lackluster numbers last summer.

On the holdovers front, Jack the Giant Slayer was a big financial disappointment in its debut last weekend, grossing a meager $27 million (peanuts compared to its nearly $200 million dollar price tag). With direct competition from Oz, it’s likely to drop over 50 percent and further its reputation as the first significant bomb of 2013. The comedy 21&Over also debuted with bad results last weekend, grossing under $9 million. Its slide may not be quite as hefty as Slayer‘s, but it may not be much better. Finally, Identity Thief is likely to have the smallest decline as it enters its fifth weekend.

And with that, we’re off the see my Top Five predictions for the weekend where Oz is all anyone is talking about:

1. Oz The Great and Powerful

Predicted Gross: $87.4 million

2. Jack the Giant Slayer

Predicted Gross: $12.7 million (representing a drop of 54%)

3. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $6.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. Dead Man Down

Predicted Gross: $5.9 million

5. 21&Over

Predicted Gross: $4.3 million (representing a drop of 51%)

Check back over the weekend as the results for Oz start rolling in and on Sunday when final numbers are released!