FINAL Oscar Winner Predictions: Best Supporting Actor

Continuing with my final Oscar predictions this week for the ceremony that airs this Sunday, we move onto Best Supporting Actor.

While the Supporting Actress category seems about a 99.9% probability to go to Anne Hathaway, this race is much more competitive. Just to give you an idea, the precursor awards have been all over the map. The big city critics group even honored two actors that aren’t nominated here. The New York Association bestowed their award to Matthew McConaughey for Magic Mike and Bernie, while the L.A. critics named Dwight Henry for Beasts of the Southern Wild. Also, the National Board of Review honored another actor not nominated here, Leonardo DiCaprio for Django Unchained.

As for the people actually nominated, both the Golden Globes and the BAFTA’s honored Christoph Waltz for Django. The Critics Choice Awards named Philip Seymour Hoffman for The Master. The SAG award went to Tommy Lee Jones for Lincoln. The other two nominees, Alan Arkin for Argo and Robert De Niro for Silver Linings Playbook, have picked up no major precursors.

You don’t say this often about a major category, but I wouldn’t be completely shocked to hear any of the five nominees have their name called. Of all the six big races, this seems most likely for an “upset”. Major momentum for Argo or Silver Linings could sway the vote to Arkin or De Niro. That “upset” possibility seems most likely for Mr. De Niro.

I would actually be most surprised to hear Hoffman’s name called, but it’s not out of the question. Waltz is a very real contender, but the fact that he won just three years ago for Inglourious Basterds could hurt his chances.

That leaves us with Tommy Lee Jones. He’s received some of the best reviews of his career in his long and illustrious career for Lincoln. It’s been 19 years since he won for The Fugitive. 

As I said, this is a difficult race to make a final call on. I’m going with Tommy Lee, though, for the win.

Prediction: Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln