Box Office Predictions: February 14-18

After the big holiday season complete with blockbusters (Skyfall, The Hobbit) and high grossing awards favorites (Lincoln, Django, Silver Linings Playbook), what usually follows is a dull January and early February.

2013 was no exception. There was one big hit (Mama), some medium-size performers (Hansel&Gretel, Texas Chainsaw 3D), and some big ol’ bombs (The Last Stand, Bullet to the Head, Movie 43, Parker).

Last weekend saw Melissa McCarthy’s first headlining comedy Identity Thief break out in a major way with a $34.5 million opening, surpassing pretty much everyone’s expectations, including mine.

This weekend, the box office landscape changes with four major releases competing with Thief‘s second frame. Added to the dynamic: Valentine Day’s falls on Thursday, so all newbies are opening then. Furthermore, it’s President’s Day weekend (where a lot of potential moviegoers have Monday off). Therefore, instead of the normal three days, my box office predictions will be for the Thursday-Monday time period.

We begin with A Good Day to Die Hard, the fifth go-round for Bruce Willis as John McClane. Hard to believe, but it’s been 25 years since Mr. McClane battled Hans Gruber at Nakatomi Plaza. While 80s/90s action icons have had a miserable time recently (Ahnuld with Last Stand, Sly with Bullet to the Head), A Good Day to Die Hard should be much different. It’s a brand name, it’s well-publicized, and all four previous entries have been blockbusters. For the five day period, anything below $35 million would be considered disappointing. I believe the potential is certainly there for an opening of $50M plus, but I have a feeling it may open a bit lower than that.

The romantic drama Safe Haven with Josh Duhamel and Julianne Hough enters the fray, shrewdly positioning itself for Valentine’s Day. It’s based on a popular novel by Nicholas Sparks, whose romance novels have been turned into several pictures, including The Notebook. In the same box office weekend last year, The Vow with Channing Tatum and Rachel McAdams made a killing with a $41 million opening. Safe Haven will probably not do those numbers (though it might), but it should have a rock solid opening with, I suspect, many “girls night out” outings and maybe even some fellas joining their gals to see it for Valentine’s Day. Those girls forcing their guys to go might have to see Die Hard later in the weekend, I bet.

Adding to the packed weekend is Beautiful Creatures, also based on a popular novel. The romantic fantasy film features Jeremy Irons and Emma Thompson in supporting roles and has been heavily marketed. It’s definitely going after the Twilight crowd and is geared more towards females. Warner Bros. has hopes this will become a franchise. I’m not so sure. Opening Creatures against Haven is a serious risk since they’re both going after females. Its opening shouldn’t be bad, but it might not be enough to warrant further entries. Early reviews have been mixed.

Going after the kiddie crowd is the animated Escape from Planet Earth, from the Weinstein Company. This one seems to be flying under the radar and it seems highly unlikely to do Pixar or even Dreamworks numbers. Still, there is a serious lack of titles out that appeal to parents wanting to take the kiddos out. Earth has the potential to surpass my modest prediction, but I’m going with a relatively low opening.

And we have last weekend’s champ Identity Thief in the mix on its second weekend. It had a much larger than expected opening that solidified Melissa McCarthy’s box office draw. The CinemaScore grade of “B” is actually pretty low, however, indicating audiences didn’t exactly love it. Thief could drop 50%, but with no other comedy competition, I suspect the drop-off won’t be so pronounced.

And with all that, my predictions for the Valentine’s/President’s Day five-day box office weekend:

1. A Good to Die Hard

Predicted Gross: $45.6 million

2. Safe Haven

Predicted Gross: $32.3 million

3. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $20.3 million (representing a drop of 41%)

4. Beautiful Creatures

Predicted Gross: $19.4 million

5. Escape from Planet Earth

Predicted Gross: $14.2 million

Whew. There’s your predictions, my friends. We’ll see what happens. Check my Facebook blog throughout the weekend for updates and on Monday when the final numbers roll in.