Box Office Predictions: February 8-10

At the box office this weekend, we have a high profile comedy and a high profile director offering up new material, along with last weekend’s champ Warm Bodies entering its sophomore frame.

First up: Identity Thief, from the director of Horrible Bosses, starring Melissa McCarthy and Jason Bateman. It will be interesting to see McCarthy’s star power with this feature. This is her first vehicle in a starring role after making an enormous splash in a supporting role in 2011’s massive hit Bridesmaids. She even earned an Oscar nomination (rare for a comedic performance) for the role. While Bridesmaids received overwhelmingly positive reviews, Identity Thief has not been met with much critical acclaim. Still, McCarthy’s presence, some fairly effective trailers, and the absence of comedies over the last couple of months should help. I honestly believe Thief could gross as low as $16 million and as much as $36 million. My gut tells me it will be on the lower end of the spectrum, but I won’t be shocked if it outperforms my prediction.

Steven Soderbergh, the great director of Out of Sight, Traffic, and Contagion, is back with Side Effects, a psychological thriller starring Jude Law, Rooney Mara, and (paying attention ladies?…) Channing Tatum. Soderbergh has a spotty track record at the box office lately. While Contagion was a hit, his last feature (2012’s Haywire) grossed a weak $8 million in its opening frame. The marketing for Side Effects has been muted in my view, though the presence of Tatum and generally solid reviews does nothing but help. If audiences are still seeking out adult fare (which they’ve had in abundance lately), Effects could open higher than my rather meager prediction.

As for the leftovers likely to fill out the Top 5, the zombie comedy Warm Bodies enters its second weekend and I expect it to drop close to 50 percent. For the record… I predicted it would open at $20.5 million last weekend and it grossed $20.4 million. So… pat on the back for me! Silver Linings Playbook has remained in the Top 5 and experienced small declines from week to week. I expect that to continue. Finally, Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, in its third frame, seems likely to drop over 50 percent, just as it did in its second weekend.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Identity Thief

Predicted Gross: $22.1 million

2. Side Effects

Predicted Gross: $11.5 million

3. Warm Bodies

Predicted Gross: $10.6 million (representing a drop of 48%)

4. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $6 million (representing a drop of 23%)

5. Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters

Predicted Gross: $4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

This weekend on the Facebook page, check for updates on Saturday and on the blog Sunday for final numbers!