Box Office Results: January 18-21

Box office weekend estimates are in a day earlier than I figured so let’s discuss, shall we?

Two immediate takeaways: Mama rules and Arnold drools. That’s a very elementary way of explanation, so let’s dig deeper. The PG-13 horror flick Mama clearly benefited from its rating and appeal to female moviegoers. I figured it’d be #1 this weekend, but way underestimated its potential. The Jessica Chastain flick earned an astonishing $33.2 million over the holiday weekend. If you’re thinking Sunday and Monday haven’t really happened yet, good job! These are estimates, but they rarely are wrong (maybe a few hundred thousand off, if that). That opening weekend is well above my puny $18.2 million projection. Mama received a low “B-” Cinemascore grade, which indicates a hefty drop could come next weekend. With a budget of only $15 million, though, Mama is a gargantuan hit.

In second, as predicted, is Zero Dark Thirty. It held up better than prediction with $21.4 million (I said $16.2M). Another Oscar contender, Silver Linings Playbook, also exceeded my expectations. For a third place showing, Playbook made $14.2 million (higher than my $11.4M forecast).

Mark Wahlberg had a nice 2012 with Contraband and Ted. That streak has ended. His thriller Broken City, co-starring Russell Crowe, had a very disappointing weekend with $10 million, well below my modest $15.3M projection. I thought the trailers for the film made it look like a “wait for HBO” picture, but I didn’t think it’d do this poorly. With mediocre reviews, Broken City should fade fast. Also earning around $10 million is Gangster Squad in its second weekend, beating my $8M estimate. The second weekend of the comedy A Haunted House made around $9 million, a little higher than my $8.4M projection.

And last… and least… Arnold Schwarzenegger’s The Last Stand. Wow. It opened on more screens than any other newbie this weekend. It also seemed to have the most commercials and was getting publicity as Arnold’s comeback film. This was his first starring vehicle in ten years. There’s no sugarcoating possible: The Last Stand had a pathetic opening weekend, grossing only $7.4 million for a ninth place showing. Clearly, audiences were in no mood to the welcome the Governator back to theaters. I predicted it would not do well by making $14 million (that would’ve been pretty disappointing too!). With Arnold working on several other projects, one has to wonder whether some of them may go the “straight to DVD” route (something that would’ve been unfathomable to think of with Schwarzenegger a decade ago).

That’s all for now, my friends. On Wednesday, box office results for next weekend when Hansel and Gretel: Witch Hunters, Parker, and Movie 43 join the mix.