Box Office Predictions: January 18-21

With three new high-profile releases and an Oscar darling tripling its screen count along with the second frames of last weekend’s #1, 2, and 3 pictures, it is a very crowded weekend at the box office. Depending on if certain films over or under perform, there is a reasonable yet fairly remote possibility that any of five movies could sit at #1.

It is the Martin Luther King holiday weekend so my estimates will be for the four-day weekend as opposed to the usual three.

For new offerings, we have Arnold Schwarzenegger’s first starring role in nearly a decade, The Last Stand. The action flick marks his first headlining feature since 2003’s Terminator 3: Rise of the Machines. As you may have heard, Arnie’s been busy doing other things over the past decade. The big question: will audiences flock to see the Governator (now a 65 year-old man) back in action? My answer: I doubt it. With a lot of competition out there, my prediction will reflect The Last Stand making the least amount of money out of the three new offerings. But I could be wrong.

Next we have the political thriller Broken City, with Mark Wahlberg and Russell Crowe. It’s certainly got a high-profile cast in its favor and Wahlberg is on a hot streak with two hits last year, Contraband and Ted. I’m skeptical as to how this film will perform, despite its pedigree. While Contraband opened in January of last year with an impressive $28 million dollar weekend, the trailers for Broken City don’t look as action-oriented as that picture. I’m not sure this seems like a “rush out and go see” type film and reviews haven’t even come out yet (two days prior to opening) meaning the studio may not have a whole lot of confidence in it. Still, the actors alone should push it to an OK debut. Or it might exceed my lower end expectations and I could be wrong.

That brings us to Mama, this weekend’s PG-13 horror offering that’s produced by Guillermo Del Toro and stars Jessica Chastain, who’s currently winning Golden Globes and getting Oscar nominations for Zero Dark Thirty. Horror films tend to open well in January, as evidence by the $21 million dollar opening of Texas Chainsaw 3D just two weeks ago. I underestimated the performance of that film and I am trying to avoid that this time around. It’s not just that, however. Mama has some talented people behind it and the trailers are pretty effective. Also in its favor: it seems like the type of horror flick that may attract a sizable female audience, which is not always the case. While any three of the new offerings could open #1, I’m going with Mama for the win. Or I could be wrong.

Speaking of Zero Dark Thirty, that film enters its second weekend in wide release. It opened last weekend at #1 with a solid $24 million debut. I don’t expect it to have a huge drop-off due to its continuing awards and word-of-mouth buzz. If Mama doesn’t do as well as I think it could along with the two other new entries, Zero Dark Thirty has a shot at staying number one. As for the two other films entering their second weekends, I anticipate bigger slides for A Haunted House and Gangster Squad.

Finally, Silver Linings Playbook, starring Bradley Cooper, Jennifer Lawrence, and Robert De Niro, enters its first weekend of wide release. The multiple Oscar-nominated picture has been in larger markets for several weeks, but it’s been in less than a 1000 theaters the whole time. This weekend, it expands to approximately 2500 theaters and it should certainly see its strongest performance yet.

And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. Mama

Predicted Gross: $18.2 million

2. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $16.2 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Broken City

Predicted Gross: $15.3 million

4. The Last Stand

Predicted Gross: $14 million

5. Silver Linings Playbook

Predicted Gross: $11.4 million

6. Gangster Squad

Predicted Gross: $8.9 million (representing a drop of 47%)

7. A Haunted House

Predicted Gross: $8.4 million (representing a drop of 54%)

As always, I’ll have updates on my blog’s Facebook page through the weekend and a full update on Monday (instead of normal Sunday) when the numbers come in.