Box Office Predictions: January 11-13

The first weekend of 2013 at the box office gave us only one new major release, Texas Chainsaw 3D, to mix in with the holiday leftovers. The Leatherface saga exceeded most expectations, including my own, and had a solid opening of nearly $22 million. The second weekend of 2013 brings three new offerings: Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty, the 30s era shoot-em-up Gangster Squad, and A Haunted House, a horror spoof starring Shawn Wayans.

Zero Dark Thirty, about the raid to kill Osama Bin Laden, has been in the news a lot lately, in addition to receiving heavy Oscar buzz. Starring Jessica Chastain in an Academy-buzzed about performance, the film has been scorching at the box office in its limited release. That does not always translate to big numbers upon wide release, but I believe the factors are there for a hefty haul this weekend. It doesn’t hurt that Oscar nominations come out Thursday and it will likely receive Picture and Director nominations the day before its release.

Gangster Squad features an all-star cast including Ryan Gosling, Josh Brolin, Emma Stone, and Sean Penn. The film was originally scheduled for release in October 2012, but was delayed after the tragic theater shooting in Colorado. A scene showing violence in a movie house was edited out. Squad looks to capitalize on its cast and pretty effective trailer. It’s been met with mixed reviews, however, and its buzz doesn’t seem to be real strong. I expect a fairly decent opening, though nothing spectacular.

Last and probably least is the horror spoof A Haunted House starring Shawn Wayans. Granted, the combo of Wayans + horror spoof has worked quite well before with the Scary Movie flicks. This one seems to be flying under the radar, though and I don’t expect big business here. It’s a tough one to call – it could potentially over or under perform my prediction, so I’ll keep it in the middle range of its possibilities.

I would expect typical mid 30s-mid 40s dropoffs for the holiday holdovers. There is an exception. Horror flicks tend to open big and drop huge in their second weekend. I expect this is the fate Texas Chainsaw 3D will experience. My predictions reflect a rare slide, from the #1 spot to seventh.

And with that, my weekend predictions:

1. Zero Dark Thirty

Predicted Gross: $29.1 million

2. Gangster Squad

Predicted Gross: $20.7 million

3. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $13.2 million (representing a drop of 34%)

4. A Haunted House

Predicted Gross: $10.8 million

5. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 41%)

6. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $9.5 million (representing a drop of 46%)

7. Texas Chainsaw 3D

Predicted Gross: $7.6 million (representing a drop of 65%)

There you have it… check the blog’s Facebook page for updates this weekend and the blog for final results on Sunday!