With the Oscar nominations coming out Thursday morning, I have been blogging my nominee predictions in the six major categories. I’m through the acting predictions and this brings us to only Best Picture (coming tomorrow) and now… Best Director.
This category is often seen as a good prognosticator of the movies that will be nominated for Best Picture. As you may be aware, Best Picture nominees can be anywhere from five to ten films. All other categories are a finite five. With this new rule change that’s only been in effect since last year, it’s probably fair safe to assume that every director nominated will see their movie nominated, too. So here’s a good indication of movies I think will get Best Picture nominations when I reveal those tomorrow.
Just this afternoon, a major harbinger of the Best Director Oscar category was released… the Director’s Guild of America (DGA) nominations. This association nominates five directors for their award every year. To give you an idea of the consistency of DGA nods to Oscar nods, in the last 10 years these nominations have exactly matched three times. It’s been a 4 out of 5 ratio six times. And only a 3 to 5 ratio once. In other words, it’s quite safe to assume that 4 out of 5 DGA nominees will get Best Director Oscar nominations. And maybe even all five could match.
The five DGA nominees announced today: Ben Affleck for Argo, Kathryn Bigelow for Zero Dark Thirty, Tom Hooper for Les Miserables, Ang Lee for Life of Pi, and Steven Spielberg for Lincoln. These are top five that I’ve been predicting on the blog for some time now and I’m having a hard time seeing any reason to change it….
Except for the fact that, more often than not, it’s only four out of five. So who could get in that didn’t get a DGA nod? The most likely is David O. Russell for Silver Linings Playbook. There’s also Michael Haneke for Amour, whom several experts have been picking. If the Academy really goes for Django Unchained or Moonrise Kingdom, Quentin Tarantino or Wes Anderson, respectively, could sneak in. And Paul Thomas Anderson’s work in The Master is a long-shot possibility.
Affleck, Bigelow, and Spielberg appear to be shoo-ins. Lee and Hooper seem the most vulnerable. I think Lee’s beautiful visionary direction for Life of Pi keeps him in. I am much less confident in Tom Hooper for Les Mis and could easily see Russell replacing him.
At the end of the day though, I have to stick with the five directors I’ve been going with that just happen to be the DGA nominees from a few hours ago.
FINAL PREDICTIONS: BEST DIRECTOR
Ben Affleck, Argo
Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty
Tom Hooper, Les Miserables
Ang Lee, Life of Pi
Steven Spielberg, Lincoln
Be sure to check back tomorrow for my predictions for the big one – Best Picture!
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