Box Office Predictions: January 4-6

Hollywood has just received some great news that 2012 was the biggest year in box office history, thanks to The Avengers, Batman, teenage vampires, James Bond, The Hunger Games, and a slew of more adult-themed pictures that performed quite well, from Lincoln to Argo to Life of Pi and so on.

The first box office weekend of 2013 only brings us three new wide releases entries, the horror flick Texas Chainsaw 3D, the tsunami drama The Impossible with Naomi Watts and Ewan McGregor and Promised Land with Matt Damon, known mostly as the anti-fracking movie.

January was often seen as a dumping ground for films that the studios don’t have a great deal of confidence in. In recent years, however, several pictures have managed to do robust business, including last year’s The Grey with Liam Neeson and Contraband with Mark Wahlberg.

In fact, the first weekend of 2012 brought a true box office surprise: the very unexpected huge opening of the horror flick The Devil Inside, which astonished the industry with a $33.7 million opening weekend. What does this mean for Texas Chainsaw 3D? Hard to tell. Horror flicks are often difficult to predict. The Devil Inside did have a really effective trailer which got audiences to the multiplex. I don’t believe the same can be said for Chainsaw. While it is a brand name, I’m not sure audiences are too thrilled for this one. My estimate will reflect that sentiment, but I would not be shocked if it earns more than expected. It could also learn less. It’s a tough one to call.

The Impossible has garnered positive reviews and big box office overseas. Still, the crowded marketplace may limit its box office possibilities stateside. If it garners Oscar nominations next week, it could have substantial legs, but I don’t anticipate a big opening this weekend.

I simply do not see a lot of anticipation for Promised Land, director Gus Van Sant’s drama starring Matt Damon. It hasn’t been too heavily marketed (other than some news stories on its apparent anti-fracking message) and reviews have been mixed. Damon is a star, but his track record at the box office is spotty. I don’t see it making much of a splash this weekend.

The real drama this weekend might be a three-way battle at the top between The Hobbit, Django Unchained, and Les Miserables, just as we saw over the Christmas holiday. All three have been received well by audiences and figure to have relatively small percentage drops. I will maintain that it will be a race between those pictures, with the caveat that Leatherface and his chainsaw could surprise.

With that, here are my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $20.8 million (representing a drop of 37%)

2. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $20.6 million (representing a drop of 33%)

3. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $18.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)

4. Texas Chainsaw 3D

Predicted Gross: $16.1 million

5. Parental Guidance

Predicted Gross: $10.2 million (representing a drop of 32%)

6. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $9 million (representing a drop of 35%)

7. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $7.8 million (representing a drop of 41%)

My prediction for The Impossible is $2.6 million, in part so low because it only opens on about 500 screens. I will estimate that Promised Land opens softly, with an opening weekend of $4.2 million.

Make sure to check back Sunday when the grosses roll in and I’ll update on my Facebook blog page with updates on how it’s looking!