Well, the previous weekend I was too generous in predicting box office performances. Over the Christmas holiday, it turns out I was quite a Scrooge and definitely was not generous enough. Every title I predicted did better (in some cases, much better) than my predictions and led Hollywood to a very Merry Christmas.
I did manage to correctly predict that Les Miserables would earn the most money over the six days. However, while I guessed a weekend gross $29.4 million and a six day gross of $47.1 million, the film managed to vastly over and somewhat under perform my estimates. The movie’s three estimate is $28 million, which actually makes it #3 for the weekend, but the six day gross was an amazing $67.4 million. That pretty much means audiences were rushing out to see it immediately. While it didn’t win the weekend itself, it won the six-day holiday marathon.
Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained gave the director another massive hit. It came in second, earning $30.6 million over the weekend (higher than my $27.2M prediction) and $64 million over the six day (much higher than my $44.6M estimate).
Somewhat surprisingly, it was The Hobbit that remained #1 for the third straight weekend. The Tolkien tale made $32.9 million (above my $26.5M) for the three day and $65.6 million over the six day (above my modest $43.8M projection). With $222 million in the bank domestically, the picture may just do Lord of the Rings numbers after all, but that remains to be seen.
Clearly, I underestimated the audience for the Billy Crystal-Bette Midler comedy Parental Guidance. It opened to middling reviews, but managed to have a rock solid debut, earning $14.8 million over the three day (above my $10.9 prediction) and a great $29.5 million over the six day (well above my $17.7M projection).
Additionally, two other holdovers held up better than I figured. Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher dipped only 10% for a $14 million weekend gross (I guessed $11.6M) and a $26.6 million six day, above my $20.8M projection. Even more surprisingly, the Judd Apatow comedy actually gained 14% from last weekend, making $13.1 million for the weekend (much better than my measly $8M prediction) and $23.8 million for the six day, well above my $14.6M projection.
I will readily admit that I didn’t anticipate the huge business done on Christmas day and the following two days. Everything performed a heck of a lot better than I figured. Mental note: be more giving when it comes to Christmas box office grosses.
I’ll be back Thursday in prediction land, as all these titles try not to drop too far and three new titles open nationwide: Texas Chainsaw 3D, the tsunami drama The Impossible with Naomi Watts, and the anti-fracking film Promised Land with Matt Damon. Stay tuned.
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