The State of the Oscar Race – UPDATED

Oscar nominations will be out in exactly two weeks – Thursday, January 10th. The latest round of my Oscar predictions for the six major categories represents bad news for The Master and good news for Django Unchained and various actors and actresses. I’ll break them down by category:

BEST PICTURE

Just ten days ago, I made my latest round of predictions. In them, I predicted nine films would be nominated (it can be anywhere from five to ten). Now I’m predicting eight. Not only that, for the first time, I’m including Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained. That means two films get left off. Those are Paul Thomas Anderson’s The Master and the indie film Beasts of the Southern Wild. I’ve had them both getting nominated for two months, so this is a pretty major shift. Of the eight films predicted, I’m least confident in the French drama Amour and Django receiving nominations. They’re in for now though.

PREDICTIONS

Amour

Argo

Django Unchained

Les Miserables

Life of Pi

Lincoln

Silver Linings Playbook

Zero Dark Thirty

BEST DIRECTOR

My picks for the five Director nominees has stayed remarkably consistent. There are no changes from ten days ago and even further back than that. There is certainly a chance that Michael Haneke for Amour, David O. Russell for Silver Linings, or even Quentin for Django could sneak in. However, my top five remain…

PREDICTIONS

Ben Affleck, Argo

Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

BEST ACTOR

Here’s the major change: ten days ago, I explained that the Best Actor race was between six actors, but only five get in. My actor on the outside looking in was Hugh Jackman for Les Mis. I now believe the success of the picture will propel Jackman to a nomination. Daniel Day-Lewis is in, no question. So that leaves John Hawkes, Denzel Washington, Joaquin Phoenix, and Bradley Cooper fighting for three spots left. This is a tough one and may continue to change over the next two weeks. Many feel Phoenix in The Master will be the one left out (something that seemed inconceivable not long ago). I’m still not ready to count him out for a nomination, so for now it’s Cooper on the outside looking in.

PREDICTIONS

Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

John Hawkes, The Sessions

Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

Denzel Washington, Flight

BEST ACTRESS

This still appears to be a two-actor race between Jessica Chastain and Jennifer Lawrence. I’m making one change for the rest of the nominees. I’m putting Naomi Watts’ performace in The Impossible back in, leaving out young actress Quevenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild. My rationale is simple: Watts is more well-known and since I’m predicting Beasts will be left out of Best Picture for the first time, I believe that could translate to Wallis missing out.

PREDICTIONS

Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

Naomi Watts, The Impossible

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Like the Directing category, this is the other one where I have no changes from ten days ago. I have a lingering suspicion we could see a surprise nominee, like Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike or Javier Bardem in Skyfall. I just don’t know which actors I’ve predicted would get left off. So my five remain…

PREDICTIONS

Alan Arkin, Argo

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

One change here because I feel that this category, more than almost any, has the real chance of a fairly surprising nominee. Due to that, for the first time, I’m taking Amy Adams performance in The Master out and replacing her with Ann Dowd with for the indie film Compliance. 

PREDICTIONS

Ann Dowd, Compliance

Sally Field, Lincoln

Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Helen Hunt, The Sessions

Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

So there we have it – my predictions with two weeks left to go. Expect another one late next week and a final one on Wednesday, Jan. 9 – the day before.