Box Office Predictions: December 25-30

I’m just going to get this out of the way first: predicting the Christmas holiday box office is EXTREMELY difficult. It’s been made even tougher this year due to the fact that Christmas falls on Tuesday, which means mid-week (Tuesday-Thursday) grosses will be much, much higher than normal.

There are three high profile releases opening tomorrow: the eagerly awaited Les Miserables, the eagerly awaited Quentin Tarantino film Django Unchained, and the Billy Crystal/Bette Midler comedy Parental Guidance.

Added to that: the third weekend of The Hobbit and the second weekends of 4 pictures, including Tom Cruise’s Jack Reacher and the Judd Apatow comedy This Is 40.

So how does it all shake out? Boy, it’s tough to say. My sense is that The Hobbit will have a much smaller decline this week and weekend that its second weekend, where it fell 57%. Traditionally, the Christmas holiday means recent films don’t decline at the level they normally would (even though I was far too generous with nearly all films this past weekend). These smaller declines could certainly benefit Reacher and This Is 40 as well, even though audiences only gave 40 a “B-” CinemaScore grade, which doesn’t bode well (Reacher got a solid “A-“).

It is certainly possible that both Les Miserables and Django will fight it out with Hobbit for the top spot. Any combination of those three films in the 1-2-3 spots wouldn’t shock me. Word is that Miserables and Django are tracking well and both have received positive reviews. I suspect Parental Guidance will only do OK.

With that, I will bravely predict next weekend’s box office grosses for the Top 6 and take a stab at the six day grosses for all. Again, a caveat: this is TOUGH:

1. Les Miserables

Predicted Gross: $29.4 million (6 day gross: $47.1M)

2. Django Unchained

Predicted Gross: $27.2 million (6 day gross: $44.6M)

3. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $26.5 million (6 day gross: $43.8M)

*representing a drop of 28%

4. Jack Reacher

Predicted Gross: $11.6 million (6 day gross: $20.8M)

*representing a drop of 26%

5. Parental Guidance

Predicted Gross: $10.9 million (6 day gross: $17.7M)

6. This Is 40

Predicted Gross: $8 million (6 day gross: $14.6 million)

*representing a drop of 34%

So, there you have it: my Xmas predictions. We’ll see what happens and on Sunday, I’ll have the complete update (I’ll post how it’s looking on the blog’s Facebook page throughout the week).

And a final note: I want to sincerely thank all of you who take the time to read this blog. I love writing it and I hope you enjoy reading it. I’ll be blogging again starting Wednesday for sure, but until then – have a Merry Christmas and if you venture out to see a Hobbit, Hugh Jackman and Anne Hathaway, Jamie Foxx and Leo DiCaprio, or Tom Cruise – safe travels!