The State of the Oscar Race

Since the last time I blogged Oscar predictions, a number of very significant events have taken place: the Golden Globe and Screen Actors Guild nominations are out. Most critics groups have bestowed their awards. Many prominent individual critics have started releasing their “Best Of” lists of the year.

The Oscar race has taken shape. We won’t know until next month what will be nominated, but it certainly felt like time to update my predictions for what will be nominated. Here goes in the six major categories. What I will do in this post is break down my predictions by “Locks”, “Strong Possibility”, “Possible”, and “Dark Horse” and indicate my predicted nominees in bold. I will give a number for each to indicate how strongly I feel its nomination is (1 being the highest and so forth). This does not necessarily indicate what I think will win (I could rank something #1 on nomination chances and not believe it ultimately will take home the golden guy). I will likely make just one more round of nomination predictions (maybe two) and then we will see a blog post in the future after nominations are out on what I think will win. Here we go:

Best Picture

Locks

1. Lincoln

2. Argo

3. Zero Dark Thirty

4. Les Miserables

Strong Possibility

5. Silver Linings Playbook

6. Life of Pi

7. Amour

Possible

8. The Master

9. Beasts of the Southern Wild

10. Django Unchained

11. Moonrise Kingdom

12. The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Dark Horse

13. Flight

14. The Impossible

15. Skyfall

Breakdown: At this point, I believe the chances of eight to ten nominees is much more likely than not. I have The Master and Beasts of the Southern Wild hanging by a thread. The French film Amour seems to have just enough traction to be in, though that too is tentative. The real threat to get in is Django Unchained, which is being called one of Tarantino’s best. It was only three years ago that Inglourious Basterds was nominated. I’m still not quite ready to predict it gets a nomination, but I’m awfully close. Moonrise Kingdom and The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel have real shots too. For the moment, the nine in bold make the cut.

Best Director

Locks

1. Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

2. Kathryn Bigelow, Zero Dark Thirty

3. Ben Affleck, Argo

Strong Possibilities

4. Ang Lee, Life of Pi

5. Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

6. David O. Russell, Silver Linings Playbook

7. Michael Haneke, Amour

Possible

8. Quentin Tarantino, Django Unchained

Dark Horse

9. Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

10. Wes Anderson, Moonrise Kingdom

11. Benh Zietlin, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Breakdown: If my estimation, we have eight directors fighting it out for five slots. Spielberg, Bigelow, and Affleck are in. Then it gets tricky. I have a hard time not seeing Ang Lee nominated for Life of Pi, which is being praised mostly for its amazing direction. Also, Les Miserables is a BIG film and I think Hooper will get recognized for it. Still, Russell, Haneke, and Tarantino are real possibilities. For now though, I think they’re on the outside looking in.

Best Actor

Locks

1. Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln

Strong Possibilities

2. John Hawkes, The Sessions

3. Denzel Washington, Flight

4. Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Joaquin Phoenix, The Master

6. Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Richard Gere, Arbitrage

8. Jean-Louis Trintignant, Amour

Dark Horse

9. Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock

Breakdown: Everyone knows Day-Lewis is getting nominated. However, he is the only one I feel comfortable calling a lock. Why? Because this genuinely looks like a VERY strong six man race and only five can be nominated. I have gone back and forth on who gets left out and right now it’s Hugh Jackman without the musical chair. Everyone else (Hawkes, Washington, Cooper, Phoenix) are also vulnerable to find themselves standing. For this category, I will give an early spoiler alert: that #1 slot could very well translate in who I pick to win eventually.

Best Actress

Locks

1. Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook

2. Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty

Strong Possibilities

3. Emmanuelle Riva, Amour

4. Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone

5. Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild

6. Naomi Watts, The Impossible

7. Rachel Weisz, The Deep Blue Sea

8. Helen Mirren, Hitchcock

Breakdown: This race looks like it’s coming down to Lawrence and Chastain competing for the gold. And I think 85 year old French actress Riva has gotten enough kudos that she’s in. After that, the last two slots are a real battle for actresses listed 4-8, but today I give the edge to Cotillard and Wallis.

Best Supporting Actor

Locks

1. Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

2. Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Strong Possibilities

3. Alan Arkin, Argo

4. Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

5. Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

6. Eddie Redmayne, Les Miserables

Possible

7. Javier Bardem, Skyfall

8. Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

9. Christoph Waltz, Django Unchained

10. Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Dark Horse

11. John Goodman, Argo or Flight

12. Ewan McGregor, The Impossible

13. Samuel L. Jackson, Django Unchained

Breakdown: This is a bigger list because I think there’s a legitimate chance we see a surprise nominee, like Bardem or McConaughey or Henry. For now, these predictions are the same they were a month ago though.

Best Supporting Actress

Locks

1. Anne Hathaway, Les Miserables

Strong Possibilities

2. Sally Field, Lincoln

3. Helen Hunt, The Sessions

4. Maggie Smith, The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel

Possible

5. Amy Adams, The Master

6. Nicole Kidman, The Paperboy

7. Ann Dowd, Compliance

7. Samantha Barks, Les Miserables

8. Kelly Reilly, Flight

9. Judi Dench, Skyfall

10. Jacki Weaver, Silver Linings Playbook

Breakdown: Hathaway is definitely the front runner, but I believe real upset possibilities exist with Field or Smith or maybe Hunt. The fifth slot is tricky. I’m predicting Adams gets in, but Kidman has gained major momentum when her role in the critically panned and little seen film The Paperboy got SAG and Globe nominations and Barks and Dowd are certainly possible.

So there you have it, my blog reading friends! My current predictions. I’ll be back for another round soon enough.