Box Office Predictions (Dec 14-16): The Hobbit Arrives

After two very quiet weeks at the box office where Thanksgiving leftovers dominated and two others films (Killing Them Softly and Playing for Keeps) came and went, the Christmas movie season officially gets underway with the release of The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey.

Director Peter Jackson kicks off his new trilogy of films based on Tolkien with one of the most eagerly anticipated titles of 2012. It will almost surely make more money this weekend than the rest of Top Ten combined. But how big is the question? It’s the director of the Lord of the Rings movies returning to Middle Earth. It’s been heavily hyped. On the flip side, it is not receiving quite the critical acclaim or awards buzz of Jackson’s first trilogy.  Not to say that’ll keep the fans away because it won’t, but it may not open on the higher ends of expectations, which would be be over $100 million this weekend. The last Rings saga grossed $72 million in its inaugural weekend in 2003 and ticket prices have jumped since then, so it’s reasonable to expect Hobbit will open bigger. With a film this anticipated, anything less than $75 million would likely be a considerable disappointment. For whatever reason though, I am having a tough time envisioning it doing over $100 million (but I could be way wrong on this one).

Meanwhile, the Turkey Day leftovers will slide between 30-50% most likely. This weekend really is all about The Hobbit though. No studio dared to schedule competition against it. And with that, my predictions for the weekend:

1. The Hobbit: An Unexpected Journey

Predicted Gross: $84.8 million

2. Rise of the Guardians

Predicted Gross: $6.9 million (representing a drop of 34%)

3. Skyfall

Predicted Gross: $6.2 million (representing a drop of 43%)

4. Lincoln

Predicted Gross: $5.8 million (representing a drop of 35%)

5. Life of Pi

Predicted Gross: $5.5 million (representing a drop of 34%)

6. The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn Part 2

Predicted Gross: $4.9 million (representing a drop of 49%)

Sunday, we will see how right or wrong I am about that little hobbit. Stay tuned!