Oscar Predictions: What Has Changed (Acting Categories)

As a continuation of yesterday’s post, I am updating predictions on what I believe will be nominated for Oscars. Updates were provided in the last post regarding Best Picture and Director. Tonight, the acting categories.

BEST ACTOR

Last month, my predicted five were Daniel Day-Lewis in Lincoln, Joaquin Phoenix in The Master, John Hawkes in The Sessions, Denzel Washington in Flight, and Bradley Cooper in Silver Linings Playbook. The first three listed are shoo-ins and it would be a shock if they weren’t nominated. Washington is a near shoo-in. It’s the fifth slot that’s tricky – other than Cooper, it could easily be Anthony Hopkins in Hitchcock, Jean-Louis Trintignant in Amour, Richard Gere in Arbitrage, Ben Affleck in Argo, or Hugh Jackman in Les Miserables. There has really been nothing in the last month, however, to put them over Cooper. Yet. For now, my predicted five from my October is my predicted five in November.

BEST ACTRESS

The biggest change here since October is that Jessica Chastain’s performance in Zero Dark Thirty was announced as a Best Actress campaign, not Supporting Actress. No one’s seen it yet, but her role has been rumored to be a great one. There’s really only one shoo-in for a nomination and that’s Jennifer Lawrence in Silver Linings Playbook. The other four I predicted were Quvenzhane Wallis in Beasts of the Southern Wild, Emmanuelle Riva in Amour, Marion Cotillard in Rust and Bone, and Helen Mirren in Hitchcock. I’m going to go ahead and say Chastain gets in, but it’s tough to predict who gets left out. For now, I’ll replace Riva with Chastain, but we’ll see how this shakes out in a month or so when I update predictions. Also, Naomi Watts in The Impossible is a real possibility.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

In both supporting categories, I predicted one from each that I know believe will not be nominated. For supporting actor, it’s William H. Macy in The Sessions. Don’t think it’s happening now. I’m not changing the other four I predicted – Philip Seymour Hoffman in The Master, Tommy Lee Jones in Lincoln, Robert DeNiro in Silver Linings Playbook, and Alan Arkin in Argo. With Macy out, candidates for the fifth slot include Leonardo DiCaprio in Django Unchained, John Goodman in Argo, Russell Crowe in Les Miserables, Ewan McGregor in The Impossible, Matthew McConaughey in Magic Mike, and a new contender not mentioned last month, Javier Bardem in Skyfall. No one has seen Django yet, but director Quentin Tarantino has a great record of his actors getting Awards nomination, particularly in the Supporting categories. So for now, my fifth slot predictions goes to DiCaprio.

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Like Macy, I now believe Jacki Weaver is unlikely to be nominated for Silver Linings Playbook. Again, the other four predicted from last month still stand: Anne Hathaway in Les Miserables, Sally Field in Lincoln, Helen Hunt in The Sessions, and Amy Adams in The Master. Fifth slot possibilities include Maggie Smith for The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel and now Judi Dench in Skyfall. However, my new fifth slot prediction now goes to Samantha Barks, a newcomer who apparently has a key role in Les Miserables.

So there you go! In December, I’ll make further prediction updates.