Oscar Predictions: What Has Changed (Best Picture and Director)

About a month ago, I made my Academy Award predictions in the six major categories: Best Picture, Director, Actor, Actress, Supporting Actor, and Supporting Actress.

As always, things in the race are constantly changing and I felt it was a good time to tell you what has changed in these races over the last 30 days, as more contenders have been seen and more buzz is out there. A few predictions I made don’t seem feasible anymore and other have solidified their standing over this time period. And now, all six categories and what has changed.

BEST PICTURE

As I explained in an earlier post, the number of Best Picture contenders can be anywhere between five and ten films, based on a complicated voting system. All other categories are limited to five and five only. In October, I predicted there would be eight: Argo, Lincoln, Silver Linings Playbook, Life of Pi, Les Miserables, The Master, Beasts of the Southern Wild, and Flight. The following pictures have yet to be seen by any critics or audiences: Les Miserables, Quentin Tarantino’s Django Unchained, Gus Van Sant’s Promised Land, Peter Jackson’s The Hobbit, and Kathryn Bigelow’s Zero Dark Thirty. Any of these pictures are possible nominees, but Les Miserables seems to be the one talked about the most. There is no reason to predict it still won’t be nominated. We’ll know more about these films when I post my next update in early December.

As for the other seven pictures I predicted, the one that seems the most unlikely now is Flight, directed by Robert Zemeckis and starring Denzel Washington. The film is out and doing good box office, but it seems to be flying under the radar now for Awards consideration for Best Pic. 

In my previous post, the biopic Hitchcock starring Anthony Hopkins and Helen Mirren had yet to be seen. Now it has and it’s generated lots of positive reviews and a few negative. It doesn’t quite seem to have enough juice to make the list. 

A month ago, Skyfall seemed like a complete long shot. Now, I’d say it stands a chance, but it’s still unlikely. 

At this point, I am taking Flight off the list and adding nothing, making my current Best Picture predictions:

ARGO

BEASTS OF THE SOUTHERN WILD

LES MISERABLES

LIFE OF PI

LINCOLN

THE MASTER

SILVER LININGS PLAYBOOK

BEST DIRECTOR

I’ll make this one super quick. Last month, I predicted the five directors nominated as:

Ben Affleck, Argo

Paul Thomas Anderson, The Master

Tom Hooper, Les Miserables

Ang Lee, Life of Pi

Steven Spielberg, Lincoln

At this time, I am not changing those predictions, though David O. Russell’s work in Silver Linings Playbook could end up making the list and knocking someone off.

We shall see. I’ll be back soon with updates on Actor and Actress, followed by Supporting Actor and Actress in the coming days.