Along with Argo, it seems to be the frontrunner for winning Best Picture this year. It sits at 93% right now on Rotten Tomatoes. The performances are also being talked about as Award-worthy, with lead Daniel Day-Lewis possibly becoming the first performer in Oscar history to win three Best Actor awards. Its directed by the most-famous director in the world, Steven Spielberg.
But how will Lincoln, opening wide this Friday, do at the box office? I’ll make a formal prediction on Thursday, but I’m writing this post today because the honest answer is… it’s kinda hard to tell.
For starters, there’s competition out there. Serious competition. Skyfall had an enormous opening over the weekend. It already has the reputation (took only a week) of being one of the greatest Bond movies ever. Its second weekend drop-off will likely not be as steep as the last 007 adventure Quantum of Solace, which tumbled over 60% in its sophomore frame. Even if it drops fifty percent, it’ll still gross nearly $45 million next weekend.
And then there’s the only major release this weekend… The Twilight Saga: Breaking Dawn, Part 2. The final installment of this hugely successful franchise is certainly going to be #1 this weekend. Part I opened last year in the same weekend to a $138 million opening weekend, representing the fifth biggest movie opening ever at the time. It now sits at #8, after The Avengers, The Dark Knight Rises, and The Hunger Games opened bigger this year. There’s no reason to believe Part 2 won’t have a similar opening or maybe even a bigger opening. The final Harry Potter film in 2011 had the biggest opening weekend of the franchise and sits at #2 of all time openings (it was #1 until Avengers). So, its certainly possible audiences will rush out to see the last Twilight right away.
This all certainly leaves Lincoln looking at the #3 spot in its inaugural weekend. The main question I have is this: will Lincoln be a movie people want to rush out and see the first weekend? Will older audiences simply wait until the upcoming Thanksgiving weekend when they have time off from work?
It is possible that Lincoln will follow the box office performance of Argo, having a solid first weekend and then experiencing small drop-offs from weekend to weekend. Or maybe its gross on turkey weekend may actually surpass the opening weekend, which is very rare for any picture to do.
When making box office predictions, there’s usually about a $5 million dollar window either way in which I think a film will open. This is not the case with Lincoln. I could see it grossing anywhere from $18-$38 million. That’s rare having such a wide discrepancy. One major factor: Lincoln is only opening on approximately 1500 screens. For some context, the new Twilight will open on over 4000 screens. A gross of $38 million on that few screens would be astonishing.
What also makes predicting Lincoln tough for me? In the environment I work in, nearly everyone I know is dying to see it. This probably isn’t a fair representation of the general public (certainly not teenage to 20 something girls who will spend their weekend watching vampires hunters who are NOT Abe Lincoln). Certainly not the many moviegoers who will catch James Bond due to its hugely positive word-of-mouth.
I’ll make my prediction Thursday, but I might be way off. We shall see.
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