Argo-mentum

Just a quick update on the Oscar race for Best Picture that I wrote about extensively earlier and will soon again.

Argo hit #1 at the box office this weekend in its third weekend. This is a very rare feat for a movie to do and it hasn’t happened in nearly two years when True Grit did.

Typically, a movie drops 40-50% weekend to weekend. This is not the case at all with Argo. It only dropped 25% in its third weekend. Besides being a major critical favorite (with a rating of 96% on Rotten Tomatoes), the Ben Affleck-directed film has clearly become an audience favorite. With drops that low, it is clear that moviegoers are telling their friends to go see it.

What does this mean? Right now, it means that Argo is the front runner to win Best Picture.

We will see Lincoln reviews in the days to come. That could change things, but early screenings suggest it’s very good, but not a masterpiece. If Lincoln does not connect with audiences in the way that Argo already has, it may not overtake the momentum (or Argo-mentum, as my lame headline suggests).

The other factor in the way of Argo is Les Miserables, which seems tailor-made for Oscar attention. No one has seen it yet though. So for now, Argo is the film to beat in the Oscar race.